In 2024, global GDP growth is expected to have reached +2.8%, according to World Bank data. The increase is limited to +1.7% for advanced economies. The better-than-expected performance recorded in the United States (+2.8%) was in fact offset by disappointing results in the Eurozone (+0.9%) and Japan (+0.2%). Emerging economies and developing markets, for their part, experienced growth of 4.2%, driven in particular by China (+5%) and India (+6.5%), despite a slowdown in growth in these two countries compared to 2023.
The disinflation process has continued in 2024. However, "although inflation in the prices of basic goods has returned to its trend level or below, inflation in the prices of services remains above pre-COVID-19 pandemic averages in many economies, notably in the United States and the euro area," the International Monetary Fund points out. As a result, central banks have been cautious about cutting interest rates, which continues to weigh on household purchasing power, businesses' investment capacity, and therefore demand.
Global trade in goods and services rebounded in 2024, with growth estimated at 2.7% after moderate expansion the previous year. Growth in goods trade accelerated in the second half of 2024, after a weaker-than-expected recovery in the first half. This recovery is partly explained by the building of precautionary stocks in anticipation of possible disruptions, notably those resulting from potential dockworkers' strikes on the US East Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico, and an increase in customs tariffs in the United States.
In 2024, the balance between supply and demand was rather favourable to shippers, which is consistent with moderate economic growth.
However, in certain market segments, transport prices have started to rise again. But this is mainly explained by external factors. International transport players initially took advantage of the instability created by the conflict in the Middle East: Houthi attacks in the Red Sea disrupted logistics chains by forcing a detour around the Cape of Good Hope. This has allowed shipping companies to increase freight rates. But airlines have also benefited, as longer maritime transit times may have forced some shippers to resort to air freight, at least until supply chains via the Cape stabilise. Airlines and shipping companies also benefited from announcements made by President Donald Trump when he was still a candidate for the White House. The prospect of additional customs duties has prompted importers to carry out forward purchasing. The very sharp increase in maritime transport prices on the Asia-Europe and Transpacific routes, particularly in the second half of the year, clearly illustrates this phenomenon. In air transport, however, a demand-related factor has contributed to the price increase: strong demand linked to the development of e-commerce, and in particular from Chinese platforms.
The contrast within the evolution of prices in European road transport is very marked. Over the year as a whole, freight rates went slightly up in Europe, and slightly down on the French market. In the European market, prices increased by 4% year-on-year in the spot market, thanks to a recovery in the second half, and by 1% in the contract market. In France, they stagnated on the contract market and decreased on the spot market. Yet at the same time, operating costs continued to rise, despite a drop in diesel and a lull in wage rises. The difficulty of passing on cost increases to transport prices is reflected in the trajectory of road transport company failures. In France, according to data from Altarès, they increased by 35.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, after rising by 39.1% in the third quarter and 37.2% in the first half. For the whole of 2024, the number of defaulting road transport companies jumped by almost 30%.
“We used to say that one crisis follows another. Today, this is no longer the case, the crises are overlapping and adding up," declared the Chief of Staff of the French Armed Forces, Thierry Burkhard, at a press conference in early July, citing a figure calculated by the International Committee of the Red Cross of 120 major conflicts in the world today, compared to 30 conflicts 30 years ago.
This situation of conflict, which is also increasingly multifaceted, has an impact on supply chains. We saw this in container shipping, which almost overnight, was forced to avoid a historic shipping route, the one that passes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, due to attacks by the Houthis. We also see this with the war in Ukraine. Eastern European carriers, who used to draw on the Ukrainian pool to find drivers, saw this source dry up, again almost overnight, in an already tense context of driver shortages. This conflict also has a serious impact on European Union airlines, which are banned from flying over Russian territory, meaning they require around 2.5 hours of additional flight time compared to, for example, a Chinese airline. This means an additional cost of around 70,000 to 90,000 euros per rotation (round trip). The impact in terms of competitiveness is therefore not negligible.
Geopolitical risk has also taken a new turn with the election of Donald Trump to the White House. First of all, the new President of the United States himself expressed a desire for territorial conquest, citing Greenland and Canada in particular. While the issue has since faded from the Trumpian spotlight, it is nonetheless significant, potentially legitimising similar ambitions of other major powers.
Furthermore, Donald Trump has decided to use the weapon of tariffs, both for political and economic purposes, and on a scale that is out of all proportion to what was deployed during his first term. China has shown that it has used the time between Donald Trump's two terms to refine a formidable arsenal of countermeasures. Europe, on the other hand, appears much more helpless, and is now realising the gap that exists between its stated ambitions in terms of sovereignty and its capacity to achieve them.
Added to this is climate risk that is likewise growing year after year, also striking unpredictably and sparing no region of the world.
In this context, the year 2024 has further confirmed the strategic role of Supply Chain departments within organisations. Risk management involves planning alternative solutions in the event of unforeseen events, but also, more structurally, designing logistics plans that now combine robustness with agility. The price of transport remains a determining factor, still mainly dependent on the balance between supply and demand, but it is no longer the only one, and above all, we see that factors other than the supply-demand ratio can influence it in significant proportions.
Companies are beginning to become aware of these new challenges and are integrating them. But the latest developments in 2024 show that supply chain strategy is also a highly political matter. Independence and sovereignty require ambitious public policies in the area of Supply Chains.