* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
Global demand for air cargo, expressed in cargo tonne-kilometres, rebounded sharply in June 2026 with a growth of 8.5% year-on-year. This development is partly explained by the continued recovery of Middle Eastern airlines, which are gradually expanding their network despite persistent geopolitical uncertainties, "but also by the solid performance recorded in North America," IATA points out.
The recovery is even more significant internationally, with growth of 9.6%. IATA notes, however, that this strength contrasts with the moderately weak export orders. "This points to demand-driven cargo flows shaped by urgent inventory movements of AI and semiconductor cargo," the Association believes.
The recovery also varies depending on the geographical origin of the companies. North American carriers stood out, with year-on-year growth of 17.1%. Asia-Pacific carriers also maintained a strong pace of 9.6%, as did European carriers (+7.2%). For their part, Middle Eastern companies continued their recovery with a 5.6% increase, but the recovery of traffic is only gradual, as the conflict in the Middle East remains a current issue.
Supply
Airlines are sticking to a very cautious supply policy. In June, capacity increased much less rapidly than demand, with year-on-year growth of 4.4%.
Annual total
For airlines, the first half of the year resulted in traffic growth of 4.9% and a 2.1% increase in supply, creating a balance that is rather favourable to the airlines. The outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, by causing a brutal contraction of supply, was a decisive turning point. The load factor shows an improvement of 1.4 points to 51.9% on international routes.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
The temporary easing observed in June on oil prices calmed the surge in air cargo prices. The average price of Brent crude fell by about 20% compared to May, settling at $85.5 a barrel, and kerosene decreased by $28.5 a barrel month over month, settling at an average of $129.5. On an annual basis, however, kerosene increased by 45.8%, and Brent by 19.6%.
Given the weight of fuel in operating costs, this development has an immediate impact on air cargo rates. Average air cargo yield fell by 1.2% compared to May, settling at approximately $3.21/kg, which, however, represents a year-on-year increase of 34%.
According to data from WorldACD, average prices across the market rose by approximately 33% year-on-year, both for the month of June and for the entire second quarter. Average rates during the second quarter are also well above those of the first quarter (+28%), illustrating the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the air cargo market.
In June, the global manufacturing PMI index fell 0.5 points to 53.0. It does however remain clearly in expansion territory. Conversely, the PMI index for new export orders fell by 0.1 point to 49.4, marking a fourth consecutive month of contraction. These indicators therefore point to resilient manufacturing activity, but moderate growth in global trade in goods.
In a statement published in July, economists from the World Trade Organization (WTO) also announced that they expect a more pronounced contraction in trade flows in the Middle East by the end of the year, given the evolution of the conflict. But at the same time, growth is expected to be stronger than anticipated in Asia and North America. Demand for AI infrastructure, digital technologies and electric mobility is indeed stimulating the growth of technology-intensive goods. According to UNCTAD data, trade increased by 38% for critical minerals, 25% for semiconductors, 15% for batteries, 14% for information and communication technology products and 11% for electric vehicles in the first quarter of 2026.
Although the overall economic environment is penalised by the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East, the strong growth observed in these specific sectors offers rather favourable prospects for the air cargo industry, as these are value-added products, and which generally need to be transported in fairly short timeframes given the strong growth. Certainly, airlines will have to deal with rising costs linked to fuel prices, but overall, the context offers them opportunities for profitable growth, which they are managing carefully by controlling capacity.