According to IATA, global demand for air cargo, expressed in cargo tonne-kilometres, jumped by 4.0% in April 2026 year-on-year. If we consider only international traffic, the increase is similar. This increase comes after a 4.8% decline in March, caused by the outbreak of the conflict in Iran and its disastrous consequences for Middle Eastern air hubs.
The impact of the conflict remained significant in April for companies in the region, even though the contraction in their traffic diminished, going from -54.2% in March to -18.2%.
Conversely, the situation is benefiting Asian companies, which have adapted to the situation in the Middle East by setting up direct links or links via other hubs to Europe. They are thus able to capture some of the traffic normally carried out by their Middle Eastern counterparts, and also benefit from a catch-up effect after the severe disruptions of March. In addition, strong intra-Asian activity and the resilience of transpacific flows supported regional momentum, allowing Asian companies to post double-digit growth (+10.5%).
Airlines in North America and Europe also made a positive contribution to traffic growth, "benefiting from improving international flows and firm corridor activity with Asia", explains IATA.
Similarly, the growth of African carriers reflected sustained activity on networks linked to Asia.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
Capacity
The conflict in the Middle East also causes persistent pressure on available capacity, down 0.9% on international connections year-on-year in April, compared to a decrease of 5.5% in March.
The decline in capacity is mainly due to disruptions in international passenger transport operations in several major long-haul markets. The capacity of carriers in the Middle East, in particular, has fallen by approximately 1.5 billion tonne-kilometres.
In order to meet demand, airlines have adapted their networks. Asia-Pacific carriers, in particular, drove growth by adding approximately 0.9 billion tonne-kilometres. In particular, the companies have deployed more all-cargo capacity. Cargo volumes carried on board cargo aircraft increased by 7.0% year-on-year in April, marking a return to growth after a period of weakness, while volumes carried in the belly holds of passenger aircraft decreased. "The divergence illustrated the growing dependence on dedicated lift to preserve schedule reliability and maintain capacity flexibility under volatile operating conditions," IATA points out.
Over the first four months of the year, the market remained in growth, with a global increase of 3.6% in volumes and 3.8% on international routes. Traffic is increasing more than supply, allowing for an improvement in the load factor, which gains 1.1 points to reach 51.7% on international routes.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
Asia remains the driver for air cargo growth, but with a noticeable shift in flow due to persistent disruptions in the Middle East.
Capacity constraints and the ever-high price of kerosene, due to supply difficulties following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have weighed on the evolution of air cargo prices.
Average unit revenue increased by 17.8% compared to the previous month and by 32.2% year-on-year, reaching $3.24/kg. Upply data supports this observation, reflecting in particular the dynamism of the intra-Asian market and the rebound of Asia-Europe flows. Year-on-year, the price increase for flows concerning the Middle East is also spectacular.
Source : Upply Freight Index
According to preliminary data from WorldACD, May was marked by a slow progression in the capacity offered. Demand remained robust, particularly from Asia-Pacific.
After the downturn observed in March, the economic indicators monitored by IATA show an improvement in the air cargo environment in April.
The global manufacturing PMI index rose by 1.9 points to reach 53.4, its highest level in almost five years. This is the strongest monthly acceleration observed in eight months.
At the same time, the index of new export orders gained 0.2 points to 50.2, remaining above the threshold of 50 which marks an expansion in activity.
More mixed signals are emerging, with a decline in international trade volumes in March after four consecutive months of progress, due to the geopolitical shock created by the Middle East conflict.
In an uncertain world, the air cargo industry can come out on top by responding to the need for last-minute adaptations in the organisation of supply chains. For now, with the exception of Middle Eastern companies which find themselves at the heart of the conflict, airlines are managing to absorb the shock and pass on the cost increases to freight rates, due to supply tensions.
The geopolitical situation and the evolution of energy markets nevertheless remain a major concern for the coming months, with particular fears about the supply of kerosene. Due to fuel shortages, but also in an effort to control costs, several airlines have started to scale back their operations.