Air cargo: growth continues

Global demand for air cargo increased by 3.9% in July 2026 year-on-year. Despite sharply rising costs, the overall economic context remains favourable for airlines.

1/ Supply and demand

* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.

• Demand

Global demand for air cargo, expressed in cargo tonne-kilometres, has increased by 3.9% year-on-year, and 4.7% on international connections alone. Although growth is slowing, it remains solid, and is also benefiting airlines in all geographical areas.

• Supply

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres, increased by 1.7% compared to July 2025 and by 1.8% for international operations. This very moderate increase allows the occupancy rate to progress by 1 point overall to reach 46%, and by 1.4 points internationally (51.5%).

• Annual total

Year-to-date at the end of July, global air cargo traffic shows growth of 4.6%, with supply increasing by 1.9%. Only Middle Eastern companies, directly affected by the war in the Persian Gulf, suffered a decline in traffic between March and June, which was not offset by the results of January, February and July.

* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.

2/ Development by corridor

• Asia-North America: the world's largest corridor recorded growth of 9.2% in July, marking 6 consecutive months of progress. According to IATA, increased maritime cargo rates in the transpacific market and congestion at some major Chinese ports contributed to this performance.
• Asia-Europe: The second busiest route in the world, the Asia-Europe corridor, saw a 3.1% increase in traffic in July, reaching 41 consecutive months of increases, but a marked deceleration since growth was 7.1% in June. This slowdown most likely stems from the entry into force of the new European legislation on small parcels on July 1, 2026. A flat customs duty of €3 per item now applies to parcels worth less than €150 from third countries, which has had an impact on volumes.
• Intra-Asia: Traffic increased by approximately 6 to 7% in July, a trend that remains consistent with the flows related to the development of artificial intelligence.
• Transatlantic : on this route, traffic increased by almost 2% year-on-year in July, after three consecutive months of contraction between March and May and a stable figure in June.
• Middle East: The region continues to suffer from the conflict in the Persian Gulf, with an estimated decline of around -15% on the Europe/Middle East route, and -13% on the Middle East/Asia route.

3/ Price trends

In July, the average price of Brent settled at $83.4/barrel, down 2.5% on June but still 17.5% above July 2025. But due to pressures on refining capacity, the global price of kerosene jumped 12.2% in one month and 56.9% year-on-year, to $145/barrel.

This increase has an impact on fuel surcharges, and consequently on cargo rates. According to IATA, average unit revenue was up 24.7% year-on-year in July. Prices then stabilised at high levels in August and early September.

4/ Trends and outlook

• Demand

The pressure exerted by global trade and manufacturing on air cargo demand remains positive in the short term, with a global PMI at its highest level in three months, a notable rebound in export orders in Asia and Europe, and low US inventories calling for replenishment.

However, over the whole of 2026 compared to 2025, the conflict in the Middle East remains a major factor slowing growth. The WTO forecasts global trade growth of +1.9% in 2026, compared to +4.6% in 2025. On the other hand, a further escalation of the conflict could put pressure on energy prices and affect global economic growth.

While the noose has tightened around cross-border e-commerce, in the United States in 2025 and then in Europe in 2026, to stem the influx of small parcels coming in particular from China, the air cargo industry can on the other hand count on a powerful growth driver: the transport of goods related to the development of artificial intelligence.

• Supply

Airlines are facing a very sharp increase in costs, linked to the explosion in the price of kerosene. So far, they have mostly managed to pass on these increases through fuel surcharges, and managed to maintain high cargo rates, thanks to capacity control. The all-cargo capacity deployed for e-commerce to Europe has been partly redirected towards transpacific shipping following the introduction of new European legislation on small parcels.

The resumption of the Iran-US conflict pushed the price of oil above $100 a barrel in early September, suggesting further increases in fuel surcharges as the peak season begins.

Overall, the market is entering the seasonal peak on a solid but less dynamic demand base than at the beginning of the year, controlled level of supply, and with fuel costs under pressure.