Following an already dynamic January, the air cargo industry in February benefited from the traditional rebound in shipments preceding the Lunar New Year. Volumes increased by 11.2% year-on-year, and by 11.6% on international routes, according to results published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). All areas are affected by this recovery.
Available capacity, expressed in tonne-kilometres, increased by 8.5% in February, approaching 54 billion tonne-km, and by 9.8% on international routes alone. Growth in demand exceeding that of supply allows for an improvement in the load factor, up 1.1 points to 46%, and up 0.8 points to 51.5% on the international segment.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
A widespread recovery… priori to the conflict in the Middle East
The changes by corridor show that almost all the major routes benefited from the favourable dynamics in February.
→ On the Asia-North America corridor (23.4% market share in 2025), volume growth year-on-year reached 9.1% in February, after a slight contraction in January. A positive sign after a gloomy 2025, as air cargo flows were affected by the trade war and increased tariffs.
→ The Europe-Asia route, second corridor in terms of international volumes, increased by 13.1%, recording its eighth consecutive month of double-digit growth in February. "This marked the highest expansion in 17 months, underpinned by healthy manufacturing-linked export," IATA points out.
→ The Europe-North America corridor also continued its 25-month positive streak, with growth of 5.7%, "demonstrating steady transatlantic trade resilience".
→ The volumes between the Middle East and Asia jumped 24% year-on-year, confirming growth that has lasted for a year and recording double-digit expansion for the second consecutive month. The conflict in the Middle East is expected to have a particularly heavy impact on this route.
→ On the Europe-Middle East route traffic increased by 9.3% year-on-year, a figure unchanged from the previous month.
The impact of the conflict in the Middle East
However, the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East on the 28th of February is likely to deal a fatal blow to the positive trend seen since the beginning of the year. IATA statistics for March are not yet available. But according to data collected by the Dutch firm WorldACD traffic dropped drastically during the first week, when several major airports were closed and the fleets of regional airlines were grounded.
Since then, operators have been adapting, whether it be airports or airlines, but the conflict continues, preventing a real return to normal. During the second half of March, capacity in the Middle East and South Asia increased by 31% compared to the first half, but remain 33% lower year-on-year. "All other regions registered capacity growth on a 2Wo2W basis as well as year on year (YoY)," WorldACD specifies.
During the month of March traffic gradually began to resume, after the sharp decline in the first week, but on a year-on-year basis, it remains generally trending downwards, in a context of persistent constraints on air cargo capacity to and from the main markets.
In February, even before the start of the conflict in the Middle East, average unit revenue increased by 6.6% year-on-year, registering its first increase in 11 months, according to IATA data. This increase was closely correlated with the evolution of the average global price of kerosene, which, at $95.7 per barrel, was up 6.0% compared to January and 1.2% compared to February 2025.
Source : Upply
The conflict in the Middle East will obviously amplify the trend considerably. Since the outbreak of the war in Iran, the price of kerosene has more than doubled, reaching a record high in March. This phenomenon, combined with operational constraints, produces an immediate effect on air cargo prices. According to the analysis by WorldACD published on April 7 shipments departing from Dubai are particularly affected.
Despite the slowdown in demand, spot prices on departures from South Asia and the Middle East towards Europe continued to climb, registering a 5% increase between March 23 and 29 compared to the previous week, driven by a 28% surge from Dubai. Year-on-year, prices have increased by 84%, with prices departing from Dubai tripling to $5.44.
Freight rates for departures from this same region towards the United States also increased by 9% on a weekly basis, and by 73% on a year-on-year basis. Here again, the increase from Dubai is particularly spectacular, with a rise of 28% week-on-week to $10.33 (+152% year-on-year). Spot freight rates are also soaring between India and the United States, to $7.77.
From Asia-Pacific to Europe spot rates increased by 4% weekly and by +28% year-on-year. The increase was fuelled in particular by a surge in departures from Indonesia and Singapore.
As airline supply chains reorganise, prices may tend to stabilise and even fall. On the Asia-Europe route in particular, airlines have injected capacity by increasing direct flights, which is easing tensions. However, the evolution of cargo rates will depend heavily on whether or not fuel prices fall, and even on the availability of kerosene. Some companies have indeed reported a fuel shortage, which could limit capacity. The duration of the conflict in the Middle East will be a determining factor.
However, in February, global macroeconomic indicators suggested a favourable environment for the development of air cargo in 2026. At 53.1, the global manufacturing PMI reached its highest level since December 2021, while export orders, at 51.4, also climbed to their highest level since July 2021.
But now uncertainty dominates."The outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of the month, however, makes it difficult to see how full-year performance will unfold. Sharply rising fuel costs, fuel scarcity in parts of the world, and the severe disruption to key cargo hubs in the Gulf are major shifts", declared Willie Walsh, IATA’s managing director.
An impact on growth and inflation
Beyond the direct impacts on air transport, the conflict affects the entire global economy. "Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth. A short conflict might send oil and gas prices soaring before markets adjust, while a long one could keep energy expensive and strain countries that rely on imports", is the International Monetary Fund analysis in an article devoted to effects of the war in the Middle East on energy, trade and finance. The IMF also raises the possibility that "the world may settle somewhere in between—tensions linger, energy stays costly, and inflation proves hard to tame—with ongoing uncertainty and geopolitical risk."
The weakening growth and inflationary pressures that will weigh on households and businesses are obviously not good news for the air cargo industry. "Much depends on how long the conflict lasts, how far it spreads, and how much damage it inflicts on infrastructure and supply chains", notes the IMF. Once again, air cargo will have to demonstrate all its adaptability to absorb the shock, but also to contribute to the resilience of supply chains.