According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global demand for air cargo measured in tonne-kilometres increased by 4.1% year-on-year in October 2025, reaching a new all-time high for an October. International traffic is doing even better (+4.8% year-on-year).
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
This increase extends a series of eight consecutive months of expansion and confirms the good level of the peak season, driven by electronics, pharma and e-commerce flows.
However, regional analysis shows that the dynamics are anything but uniform. African companies recorded the strongest growth (+16.6%), followed by their Asia-Pacific counterparts.(+8.3%). Companies in Europe and the Middle East are progressing more moderately, with respective increases of 4.7% and 5.8%. And on the American continent, companies are not benefiting from this positive trajectory, since those in North America are declining by 1.9% and those in Latin America by 2.5%.
The detailed evolution by major traffic routes also reflects the disparities in growth. The month of October notably confirms the redirection of flows stimulated by US customs barriers.
→ The Asia-North America corridor shows a year-on-year decline of 1.4% in October. The decline is less pronounced than in September (-3.5%), but in cumulative annual figures over ten months to the end of October, this is the only major route that has recorded a decrease (-1.1%). The heavy tariffs imposed on China are having an effect.
→ Conversely, the Asia-Europe corridor stands out with double-digit growth in October (+11.7%) and year-to-date (+10.6%). This development reflects a shift in Chinese flows towards the European market, confirmed by overall Chinese foreign trade figures.
→ American policy is also accelerating companies' diversification strategies in terms of sourcing, particularly towards other Asian countries besides China which promotes the development of intra-Asian flows and benefits air cargo. In October, intra-Asia traffic increased by 9.0%, and year-to-date growth stands at 9.4%.
→ The transatlantic market remains in growth, with an increase of 2.6% in October. However, the trend is towards a slowdown. At the beginning of the year, American importers anticipated orders in preparation of the introduction of tariffs, which stimulated air cargo activity (+7.6% on average during the first three quarters). Now that the trade framework between the United States and the European Union seems to have stabilised, the market is returning to its cruising speed.
In year-to-date terms over the period from January to October 2025, global demand is up 3.3% and international traffic is up 4.0%.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
Capacity (ACTK) increased by 5.1% year-on-year in October, one point more than volume growth. As a result, the cargo load factor stands at 47.1%, down 0.5 points year-on-year.
The momentum is primarily driven by the available belly-hold cargo capacity of passenger aircraft, which increased by 6.4% year-on-year in October. It represented 54.3% of the total international supply during the period January-October, compared to 53.7% in 2024. The capacity available on board all-cargo aircraft also increased by 6.4%, but its share fell by 1.3 points in the total supply, mainly due to weak traffic on the transpacific corridor. This route, which accounted for nearly 55% of supply in 2024, now represents only slightly more than 51% (84% of which is supplied by cargo planes compared to 87% a year earlier). In order to adapt to the redirection of flows, airlines have indeed redeployed part of their all-cargo fleet to other routes, in particular Europe-Asia (+21.4%) and Europe-North America (+12.4%).
The increase in supply that is exceeding that of demand puts a certain pressure on prices. Average unit revenue declined for the 6th consecutive month, falling by 4.7% in October year-on-year. The decline in fuel prices over fourteen months reduced fuel surcharges, which brought the average unit revenue down to USD 2.46/kg.
Upply data shows moderate month-on-month price growth across Intra-Asia, Asia-Europe, and North America-Europe routes, indicating a slight uptick in major areas as the peak season begins. But on a year-on-year basis, the trend is generally downward.
Source : Upply
Macroeconomic indicators remain generally positive, but are still uncertain.
Traffic is expected to continue to grow at reasonable levels during the end-of-year period, driven by demand specific to this season and by commercial operations such as Black Friday which fuel a type of demand favourable to air cargo.
For the beginning of 2026, the forecasts are much more cautious. In the first quarter, growth compared to 2025 will be all the more limited as the first quarter of 2025 benefited from a strong effect of frontloading of orders before the announced arrival of additional US tariffs.
On the other hand, the European Union will find it difficult to continue to see its deficit with China widen without reacting. Initiatives are still timid, but at the Economic and Financial Affairs Council on November 13, the finance ministers of the European Union agreed, for example, to remove the exemption from customs duties on parcels worth less than €150, and on the need to find a temporary solution to enable the application of taxes to these shipments from 2026.