According to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global air cargo traffic jumped 4.1% year-on-year in August 2025, and 5.1% on international routes alone. Growth is slightly lower than in July (+5.5%), but the global air cargo market maintains good momentum, recording a sixth consecutive month of growth. In seasonally adjusted data, volumes increased by 3.9% year-on-year.
The new US tariff policy appears to have once again influenced the level of demand. According to IATA, after a phase of frontloading, for certain high added-value products there has been a shift from maritime transport to air transport, with shippers wanting to shorten lead times to minimise the risk of changes in customs tariffs between the order and the actual delivery of the goods.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
Moreover, US trade policy is redefining the structure of global trade, and this is reflected in changes in air cargo flows on international routes. Most recorded year-on-year growth of at least 7% in August, but two corridors were down: Asia-North America and Europe-Middle East.
The Asia-North America corridor, with a 2.2% year-on-year fall in volumes in August, recorded its fourth consecutive month of decline. This corridor, which represented almost a quarter of volumes in 2024, is undoubtedly losing ground to other routes. Asian markets are turning to Europe in particular for their exports: the Asia-Europe routes showed a 13% increase in August. But there is also significant intra-Asia activity, with growth of 12.4%, as well as an Africa-Asia corridor which has been picking up momentum since July after a long period of decline. The increase in August was 8% year-on-year. The Europe-North America corridor suffered less from the new American customs policy, since it posted growth of 7.8% in August.
During the first eight months of 2025, global traffic is expected to have grown by 3.3% compared to the same period in 2024. Overall, the increase in volumes is in line with that of capacity (+3.5%). On international routes, however, supply is growing slightly faster than demand.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
In August, global capacity increased by 3.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, reaching a record high of over 55 billion tonne-kilometres. This growth is once again driven by the increase in cargo capacity available in the belly holds of passenger aircraft, which shows an increase of 7.8% year-on-year. They thus represent 56.6% of the total cargo supply, compared to 55.4% in August 2024.
The overall load factor shows a very slight increase of 0.2 points, to 44.2%, driven solely by airlines in the Asia-Pacific region (+1.3%).
According to IATA, average unit revenue, including surcharges, fell by 2.0% year-on-year in August. This is the fourth consecutive month of decline, "partially offsetting the gains seen in the first quarter," IATA points out. This drop is notably influenced by the price of fuel: kerosene is down 6.4% to USD 87.6.
Source : Upply
The unpredictability of US trade policy has given rise to persistent uncertainties, reflected in the mixed economic signals.
Global production rebounded in July, confirming the trend of recent months. However, we are beginning to see a slowdown in growth. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.75 from 49.67 in July, moving back into growth territory. On the other hand, new export orders remain in negative territory at 48.73, illustrating the continued caution of companies in the face of the tariff war.
Next month, the air cargo industry should also begin to feel the impact of the elimination of the de minimis rule, which exempted packages worth less than $800 entering the United States from customs duties. This measure is likely to penalise e-commerce, one of the major growth drivers of the air cargo industry. For the moment, the sector is resisting the resumption of the trade war rather well, but the effects are now tangible, notably with a restructuring of flows.