Container shipping’s fate tied to Hormuz crisis

BAROMETER. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has dealt the global shipping economy a major blow. After the initial shock, the maritime logistics chain is striving to adapt.

The military operation launched by the United States and Israel on 28 February is not the « little excursion » referred to by President Donald Trump. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards riposted first by ordering merchant shipping to cease using the Strait of Hormuz. They then began attacking neighbouring countries, targeting American interests and strategic infrastructure. This extension of the conflict to the wider region had a worldwide impact on numerous sectors, since it let to a hike in energy prices and shortages of certain goods.

Shipping not totally paralysed

Even though the Strait of Hormuz has long been known in maritime history as a flashpoint, its virtual closure has caused deep economic instability. Energy markets are most affected, as was the case in the 1984-1988 “tanker war” during the Iran-Iraq conflict. During that period, more than 400 tankers came under attack in one form or another.

In the current conflict, matters are less clear. The energy facilities of the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf are being targeted but the warring parties showed during the first month of conflict that they wanted to preserve production capacity, even if it was in reduced mode. Although oil prices soared, it is clearly in the interest of the United States and Israel to try to calm international markets. And in the BRICS sphere, it is important not to cause too much disruption to Iranian oil supplies to China and India.

Although shipping movements were virtually paralysed at the beginning of March, a "secure passage system" was subsequently set up through Iran’s territorial waters. Cargos of oil, diesel and gas destined for India and China were the main beneficiaries. The system involves the use of codes of passage as vessels pass a checkpoint on the Iranian island of Larak. Some sources talk of a toll system involving the payment of $2 million in at least one case, even if this practice does not seem to be general.

Between 12 March and 3 April, a hundred or so ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, including 36 bulk carriers, 20 or so tankers, 15 or so gas tankers and 11 container ships, according to figures from global ship tracker Marine Traffic.

Finally, on 7 April, a two-week ceasefire agreement was concluded between Iran and the United States in return for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This fragile truce does not mean that there will be a rapid return to normal. Far from it. But it should at least make it possible to come to the aid of trapped seafarers and allow the ships which have been trapped upstream of the strait for more than a month to leave the area.

The first effects of traffic disruption

The human impact

• According to as yet uncertain data, 10 or so seafarers have lost their lives in the course of attacks on their vessels since the start of the conflict.
• Additionally, while 3,200 ships have been affected by the crisis in one way or another, about 800 merchant vessels have actually been immobilised, of which about 130 mainly small or medium-sized container ships. According to figures from the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), some 20,000 merchant navy seafarers have been left stranded. They are faced with water, food and fuel rationing, as well as the constant fear that their ships could come under fire.
• On land, the crisis is also having a humanitarian impact on the populations of the countries of the Persian Gulf, which are facing general supply difficulties. Controlled temperature containers loaded with food are largely unable to move, with large-scale losses of the foodstuffs they contain expected.

The impact on shipping activity

The current situation in the wider Persian Gulf area is imposing new operating constraints on shipping.

• Most container shipping companies have announced reorganisations of their services. Longer voyages and the port congestion that go with them are having a marked impact on transit times. A voyage from Asia to Europe currently takes about six more days than at the end of 2025.
• The service slowdown also affects the repositioning of empty containers in Asia, putting available installations under strain.
• The cost of VLSFO (Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil), which had been relatively stable in recent months at around USD550-650 per tonne, rose to more than USD1,000 under the effect of the crisis. The shipping companies have reacted by introducing “emergency” fuel surcharges in addition to the classical “bunker surcharges” already included in freight rates on all routes.The introduction of these surcharges is beginning to impact freight rates to a greater or lesser extent, depending on the route concerned.

   

• The prospect of a large-scale return to the Suez Canal during the first half of 2026 has now disappeared. Traffic round the Cape of Good Hope route is becoming increasingly dense but with vessels operating at slow speeds to save fuel.

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