For its silver jubilee, the 2025 edition of TPM in Long Beach lived up to expectations. Bringing together the world's top specialists in containerised maritime transport for four days, this trade show, organised by the Journal of Commerce (a division of S&P Global), fostered both formal and informal discussions of great value around high-level conferences. It was a place for healthy discussion that avoids the overly emotional reactions (which is not always easy for everyone) in the current geopolitical climate, which is shaking the foundations of global trade.
In the coming weeks and months, we will provide more in-depth coverage of this remarkable edition of TPM. But without further ado, dear readers, we wanted to share the five key issues we identified as crucial for the evolution of containerised maritime transport in 2025.
Let's be honest: I was quite sceptical about this risk, which shipping companies frequently highlight. However, the arguments presented are actually quite solid. This is not just a scare tactic to create market tension.
The mistake would be to assess the real risk of congestion based solely on statistical data concerning the number of containers handled at each port. Instead, this analysis should be adjusted by examining multimodal bottlenecks at terminal entry and exit points, and even within the port zones.
From this perspective concerns have been raised about Shanghai, Ningbo, and Los Angeles/Long Beach throughout 2024. Singapore has also experienced transshipment difficulties, even reopening old, completely obsolete terminals.
Land can be optimised, but it cannot be expanded by magic or decree. This is a major challenge for the sector.
Shipping companies unanimously agree on the need to refrain from hastily resuming the Suez Canal route. Doing so would exacerbate port congestion within an already chaotic organisational landscape. Without clear, durable, and solid security guarantees validated by insurers, the best course of action is to delay any decision and begin efforts to restore freight rates for shipments departing from Asia in March, which is already underway.
As anticipated in our Scenario 1 for 2025, MSC is setting the market trend by increasing its FAK rates. According to Alphaliner, MSC unexpectedly removed all its Megamax vessels (ranging from 19,200 to 24,300 TEUs) from Asia-Northern Europe routes, reallocating them to Asia-Mediterranean and Asia-West Africa routes. As seen last November, other shipping companies are broadly following this trend—for the time being at least. The 2025 roller coaster has begun, and shippers will need to hold on tight.
"Stock, Baby, Stock!" Despite the high costs, shippers are stockpiling heavily. This trend is primarily driven by the risk of congestion, as memories of supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic remain very vivid.
Additionally, the threat of additional tariffs being brandished by the U.S. has encouraged pre-emptive ordering. China, and its satellite states are currently benefiting significantly from this situation.
According to EeSea, actual capacity growth on the Asia-U.S. trade lane between 2020 and 2024 was only 4.8%.
The widespread diversion of container ships via the Cape of Good Hope is absorbing approximately 17-20% of capacity on the Asia-Europe and Asia-U.S. routes. Additionally, last-minute service cancellations and the withdrawal of large vessels further impact the market.
The era of fixed weekly services undoubtedly appears to be over, laid to rest by the pandemic: the "semi-liner model" has prevailed!
We will see if the Gemini Alliance, with its shuttle services, can restore the concept of vessels returning to the same terminal at the same time each week.
Our Scenario 3 for 2025 anticipated "The Great Awakening of the United States"— and it seems to be materialising. The Trump administration aims to rebuild the entire U.S. maritime sector.
The first priority is securing global shipping routes, and the new president's territorial claims illustrate this objective quite clearly. However, the administration also intends to go further in achieving sovereignty by investing heavily in shipbuilding, both for the merchant marine and the military sector.
This move is largely aimed at countering Chinese dominance in the sector. Following an investigation initiated under the Biden administration, which concluded that "China engages in policies and practices aimed at dominating the shipping, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors," the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has proposed imposing heavy service fees on Chinese-built vessels:
The USTR will hold a public hearing on these proposed measures on March 24, 2025, which also include plans to prioritise American cargo transport on U.S.-flagged ships.
President Trump has announced the creation of a new Office of Shipbuilding, directly overseen by the White House, highlighting the strategic importance given to the issue. The U.S. successfully met a similar challenge in the 1940s, thanks to the ingenuity of Henry J. Kaiser, the pioneer of modern modular shipbuilding with the Liberty Ships.
However, that success is now a distant memory. In the container sector, the last vessel built for Matson in a U.S. shipyard was a modest 4,000-TEU unit that cost about five times more than if it had been built in South Korea.
The challenge is twofold: acting quickly while achieving a technological edge over existing market solutions. This is crucial because advancements in military technology—such as miniaturised and portable weaponry—are narrowing the gap between commercial and military ships, making the former easier to mobilise in a conflict.
If there is one thing that France has long understood, it is the strategic role of the merchant navy in national and even continental sovereignty. The State has consistently supported CMA CGM and ensured that the interests of this ‘national flagship’ are preserved. This strategic expertise is being exported: in times of urgency, it is better to build on existing infrastructure, at least partially, especially since the U.S. maritime sector needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. On March 6, 2025, CMA CGM announced a $20 billion investment in U.S. shipping and logistics over the next four years. While some of these investments (notably in terminals) were already in the pipeline, the group, which owns the US company, American President Lines (APL), also emphasised its ambition to "significantly expand the U.S.-flagged fleet". A clear sign of this project's positive reception was seen when CMA CGM’s CEO Rodolphe Saadé was welcomed by Donald Trump in the Oval Office.
Industry CEOs attending TPM 2025 unanimously warned that the proposed double penalty—tariffs on Chinese goods plus a tax on “Chinese-built ships”—would be too heavy a burden for U.S. consumers and exporters in the long run, as it would be deeply inflationary. The transactional approach in global trade is here to stay, bringing with it all the instability that entails.