The time has come for our annual advisory exercise ahead of the launch of the 2026-2027 tender season in containerized ocean freight. Our approach is to highlight the key criteria of the SWOT matrix, with some weighting. As last year, we can add new columns to the good old tender Excel spreadsheet (which, for some shippers, is now nearly 40 years old). Incidentally, it is interesting to see how powerful this basic tool remains in a world now surrounded by AI.
Demand
Observers were expecting a sharp drop in demand in 2026, because of the introduction of additional tariffs in the United States, the weakness of the European economy and the impact of inflation.
In the end, volumes showed greater-than-expected resilience on long-haul East-West routes in 2026. The major US ports, in particular, are posting record volumes. For carriers, this is also a pleasant surprise, which is pushing them to take a more serious look at the Suez Canal route. Had East-West volumes fallen by 15% since the start of the year, as most carriers had budgeted at the end of 2025, the story would have been different.
Western demand should remain firm after the usual Golden Week slowdown (1-7 October 2026). Even as geopolitical tensions grow, decoupling does not really work for large volumes, and heightened geopolitical risks encourage stockbuilding, which keeps demand solid.
Supply
According to the September 2026 forecasts from BIMCO (Baltic and International Maritime Council), the global container ship fleet is expected to grow by 4.6% in 2026 and 9% in 2027. The container ship orderbook now exceeds 14 million TEU, equivalent to 42% of the existing fleet.
Geopolitical and climate factors are coming to carriers’ rescue in an unexpected way, by neutralizing part of the capacity. The diversion via the Cape of Good Hope, restrictions on transits through the Panama Canal and the particularly violent typhoon season in Asia are generating additional waiting times in ports, congestion, disruption in empty container pick-ups, last-minute blank sailings and much longer ton-mile distances.
At the end of September, we estimate that the capacity neutralized, voluntarily or not, stands at nearly 20% of global available capacity, owing to the accumulation of sources of disruption. Fuel costs and geopolitical and climate stress factors should partly offset the supply increase brought by a partial and gradual return via the Suez Canal.
Freight rate trends
While the gap between freight rates on the two main global trades, Asia–Europe and the Transpacific, was fairly correlated over the past two years, 2026 shows a divergent trajectory.
1/ Supply and demand
Supply
Demand
Freight rate trends
2/ Operating costs
Fuel
Choice of shipping routes
3/ Carrier-direct or NVOCC: which channel to favor?
A higher entry ticket
Greater flexibility
4/ China import focus: FOB or CIF?
5/ Early bird or late bird strategy?
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