Road transport volumes between major European economies rebounded in the run-up to the holiday season, after hitting a low point in August. The Germany-France corridor, in particular, has reached levels comparable to those of 2024. All routes connecting to Poland also showed recovery after a weak third quarter of 2025, according to the IRU/Ti/Upply study on road freight rates in Q4 2025.
Services, retail, construction and industrial production all experienced growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.
However, the recovery is having an uneven impact on the road transport market. :
The contract rate index stood at 136.9 in the fourth quarter of 2025, a solid increase of 2.6 points compared to the previous quarter and 3.1 points year-on-year.
On the other hand, the European road freight spot rate index showed a limited quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3 points and a decrease of 3.3 points compared to the 4th quarter of 2024. As such it came in at 135.1 points.
Content source : Upply.
The contract market has probably benefited from a certain improvement in the business climate. Economic outlooks for 2026 report moderate growth in Europe, but Germany is expected to recover after three years of stagnation, while the market is expected to remain fairly stable in France. On the other hand, Spain will maintain good momentum and Poland, which has returned to strong growth, should continue on this path.
The slight recovery in volumes observed in the last quarter and the forecasts for 2026 have helped to support the market for contract freight rates. Shippers are not expecting a sharp rebound, but they nevertheless need to secure capacity, especially as several factors are putting pressure on the transport supply side. First of all, the shortage of drivers remains a crucial issue in the majority of major European economies. Overall, driver shortage has increased by 18,000 in 2025, bringing the number of unfilled positions to 440,000. On the other hand, in a context of low margins, carriers are very cautious in terms of investments: registrations of new heavy goods vehicles have decreased by 6.2% in 2025 compared to 2024. Finally, carriers are facing rising operating costs which also exerts slight upward pressure on contract rates.
On the other hand, peaks in demand are not currently intense enough to create difficulties in accessing transport capacity. As a result, the spot interest rate market remains sluggish and even tended to fall back after a slight recovery in December 2025.
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