July 2024 will remain memorable for the whole French population. The first week was marked by the second round of the legislative elections, which did not bring the clarification hoped for by the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron. This was followed by a period of uncertainty and negotiations for the formation of a new government, which continues to this day. But in the meantime, the enchanted interlude of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games took place. In addition to the medal tally, the quality of the organisation, the exceptional setting and the atmosphere that was both festive and good-natured were widely praised.
The political context, however, had more influence on the morale of business leaders than the Olympic Truce did. According to data from INSEE, the business climate in France literally collapsed in July, losing 5.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Unheard of since the Covid-19 crisis. As such it is clearly below its long-term average. All sectors contributed to the deterioration, but we can observe that the decline is not so much fuelled by a fall in balances of opinion on past sales as by fears about the evolution of order books. The employment climate fell significantly by 4 points. Finally, inflation rose to 2.3%, due to the increase in energy prices, and in particular gas prices.
In this turbulent and contrasting economic context, road transport prices in France rose remarkably by 2.0% in July compared to June, putting a stop to the sluggishness observed for several months now.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Route France
This rise in prices, while activity stagnates or even declines in some sectors, could indicate the beginnings of stagflation (...)