On the economic front, May 2026 was marked by accelerating inflation. According to provisional data from INSEE, consumer prices rose by 2.4% in May 2026 year-on-year, after an increase of 2.2% in April and 1.7% in March. This trend is fuelled by rising energy and food prices. The price of gas, in particular, jumped by 15.4%.
Companies, already weakened, are suffering the repercussions of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are disrupting supply chains and causing energy costs to skyrocket. The announced agreement between the United States and Iran, which should allow the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, raises hopes for a fall in energy prices. Oil prices fell the day after the memorandum of understanding was announced. However, prices will not return, at least not immediately, to the levels seen before the conflict. Restarting plants will require time. Moreover, in the East, the conflict in Ukraine remains a factor of lasting instability, with direct consequences for energy security and commodity prices in Europe.
The composite business climate indicator reflects the persistent gloom, registering its 4th consecutive month of decline in May to settle at 93.6. It has now settled permanently below its average level since the 100 mark has not been crossed since March 2024.
Source: Business climate – May 2026, Insee.
If we compare the monthly increases of April and May 2026, we can say that road transport prices in France increased "moderately" in May with a rise of 1.9%, compared to 7.4% recorded in April. But this could be an optical illusion! Since January 2022, this is still the 6th largest increase recorded in a single month. Apart from last month's increase, the four other largest monthly increases in transport prices were reported in 2022, from March to June, caused by the combined effect of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the return of inflation in the immediate post-COVID period.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Road France
In 2022, the rise in diesel fuel prices linked to the invasion of Ukraine had severely reduced the margins of European road transport, requiring significant aid. In 2026, a similar shock is occurring, but public aid is more limited, particularly in France where budgetary leeway is very limited (...)