While France's public debt has reached a historically high level, exceeding €3,536 billion, or 117.5% of GDP, at the end of the first quarter of 2026 according to INSEE data, the Court of Auditors has consequently raised the alarm. It emphasises that "all signals are flashing red" and that the execution of the 2026 budget is shaping up to be complex, with increased uncertainties as the vote on the 2027 budget and the upcoming elections.
The Banque de France has also revised its growth forecasts downward. In its macroeconomic projections for June 2026, it mentions a GDP increase of 0.5% in 2026, revised down by 0.4 points compared to the March projections. Indeed, inflation fell in June thanks to the slowdown in energy prices, settling at +1.8% compared to +2.4% the previous month, but it remains very volatile, due to the exposure of the French economy to geopolitical shocks, and at this precise moment to the conflict in the Middle East. In early July, the situation deteriorated again, following a precarious ceasefire and a period of chaotic negotiations. The situation is therefore far from stable, and this immediately impacts oil prices.
On the monetary front, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its rates for the first time in three years, despite sluggish growth in the eurozone. This decision, taken in a context of persistent inflation (3% in 2026), aims to stabilise public finances, but it is weighing on households and businesses. In the United States, the Federal Reserve maintained a firm stance, mentioning a possible rise in interest rates, after inflation reached 4.1% in May 2026 and 3.5% in June.
In this context, it is not surprising that the business climate, as measured by INSEE, remains gloomy. Although the synthetic indicator rebounded slightly, up to 94, it remains well below its average level. It declined in industry and construction, confirming a slowdown in the French economy, stagnated in services and increased slightly in retail trade.
In the road freight transport sector, the business climate only reached 95 points, revealing a globally unfavourable situation. In March and April, treasuries suffered particularly from the sudden rise in the price of diesel, which caused the balance of opinion on treasury to fall to its lowest level since 2006, even lower than that observed during the first COVID lockdown of 2020.
Source: Insee
Road transport prices in France continued their upward trend in June, showing a rise of 0.7%. This is the fourth consecutive increase, which confirms the inflationary trend in transport costs in 2026. However, the increase in transport prices is showing a slowdown, since the rise had reached 7.4% in April but 1.9% in May. However, the renewed conflict in the Middle East, with its immediate impact on the price of oil, could reverse this trend.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Road France
As a logical consequence of this increase, even if slowed down, road transport prices hit a new record in June (...)