France recorded GDP growth of +0.5% in the third quarter of 2025, exceeding expectations (+0.3% initially forecast). This performance suggests annual growth exceeding the government's forecast of 0.7% for 2025. Economic activity remained strong, especially in services, and a rebound in construction was even observed. Inflation remained stable at 0.9% in November. The slowdown in service prices (+2.2% after +2.4%) and, to a lesser extent, in manufactured goods prices, is somewhat offset by a smaller decline in energy prices and a slight increase in food prices.
One should be careful though as this French growth is misleading, because during the summer, the French economy mainly benefited from a rebound in the aeronautics sector, which had been penalised since Covid by supply problems: Airbus increased its delivery pace in September, a production increase perceived as "a lasting phenomenon that could be transformed, in a full year, into 0.3 or 0.4 points of growth".
The business climate continued its improvement that began last month. It rose another point and is approaching 100, the long-term average. It is driven mainly by the services sector which gained 3 points, while industry, on the contrary, fell by 3 points. The automotive sector, in particular, is generally doing poorly, from production to repair and distribution. For those who want to purchase a vehicle, now is the time for great deals!
Under these conditions, road transport prices in France fell very slightly in November, losing 0.2% compared to October. Overall, for the past three months, the trend has been fairly flat.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Road France
We cannot help but recall the age-old refrain: political instability weighs heavily on the economic world, which inevitably impacts the activity of road transport. Uncertainties related to reforms, budgets and political orientations (including pension reform, budget discussions and social tensions) create a climate of apprehension and caution for shippers as well as for road freight transport companies, which have often postponed their investment decisions.
However, the disparity between the evolution of professional diesel prices and those of road transport is concerning. Road transport costs are closely correlated with fuel costs. However, professional diesel increased by 0.7% and 0.3% respectively in September and October, before jumping by 4.5% in November (see indicators p.8). At the same time, the Long Distance Combined Articulated LD EA index published by the National Road Committee (CNR) increased by 0.2% in September, remained stable in October but increased by +1.1% in November.
To summarise, over 3 months, transport costs increased by 1.4%, while prices remained stable. There is indeed a significant drop-off (...)