The French economy is expected to experience GDP growth of 1% in 2026, following increases of 0.9% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2024, according to an INSEE economic outlook report from December 2025. Activity is expected to accelerate slightly in the first half of the year (+0.3% per quarter), boosted by a small increase in manufacturing output. Activity in the construction sector, on the other hand, is expected to register a moderate decline, due to a lull in local public investment following the upcoming municipal elections.
Domestic demand is expected to continue to drive growth in 2026. Household consumption, in particular, is expected to grow somewhat faster, as is business investment. In contrast, INSEE anticipates a negative contribution of foreign trade to growth in the first quarter of 2026 (-0.4 points after +0.5 points) due to the decline in aeronautical and naval exports after the exceptional performance of the second half of 2025.
The French economy is evolving in an uncertain international context and a tense political context. It was not until February 2nd that the country finally had a budget for 2026, an unprecedented situation that reflects the deep political divisions and the difficulties in finding a compromise in the National Assembly. The public deficit, although slightly down, remains high, at over 5% of GDP, a threshold considered critical by the Governor of the Bank of France. François Villeroy de Galhau warned of the risks involved if this trajectory is not corrected, stressing the need for a credible budget to reassure economic players.
Despite the uncertainties, the economy is proving to be quite resilient. In January 2026, the business climate reached its highest level since June 2024. At 99, it is almost at its long-term average, although with significant disparities. At 105, it thus rebounded sharply in industry, reaching its highest level since July 2022. On the other hand, the business climate is stable in services and construction, and deteriorated significantly in retail despite controlled inflation: in January 2026, the consumer price index showed a decline of 0.3% month-on-month and an increase of 0.3% year-on-year.
It must be said that the employment outlook tarnishes the overall picture: at 93, the employment climate lost 2 points compared to December 2025 and moved away from its long-term average. Furthermore, the gradual elimination of subsidies for hiring apprentices could lead to the disappearance of 64,000 jobs by mid-2026, further weakening the labour market.
In this context, road transport prices in France fell by a very small 0.1% in January 2026 compared to December 2025. This development appears to reflect the persistent fragility of the French economy, characterised by moderate growth and lacklustre household consumption.
This slight decline can also be explained by the caution of businesses and households who, lacking confidence in the future, prefer to curb their spending, which weighed on the volumes of goods to be transported. This is a situation that has been observed for several months. According to the latest data published by the Ministry of Transport, which covers the third quarter of 2025, domestic road freight transport declined by 1.4% in France during this period, reaching 41.5 billion tonne-kilometres, its lowest point since the end of 2023. While transportation on behalf of others remained almost stable, own-account transportation recorded a sharp decline.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Road France
Variations in road transport costs are closely linked to fuel prices. After a marked drop of 5.5% in December 2025, the price of professional diesel rebounded by 3.4% in January 2026, illustrating persistent volatility in the market.
This increase in January will probably be reflected in road transport prices with a one-month lag, in accordance with the regularly observed delayed pass-through mechanism (...)