French road transport confronted by the shock of the war in Iran

BAROMETER. French road transport is on the brink of collapse, hit hard by the surge in diesel prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. The emergency aid is considered derisory by carriers.

Unsurprisingly, in March 2026, France was hit by the shock of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. This war, which began at the end of February, immediately caused energy prices to skyrocket, shaking up an already fragile French economy, as well as the entire European ecosystem.

• For the eurozone, in its interim report the OECD has revised its growth forecast downwards, now at 0.8% in 2026 instead of the 1.2% announced in December, while inflation is expected to reach 2.6%, compared to the 1.9% initially forecast.
• In France, in its baseline scenario, The Banque de France has also slightly revised downwards its GDP growth forecast for France, now projected at 0.9%. Inflation is expected to rise by 1.7% in 2026, due to energy prices, after an average annual increase of 0.9% in 2025. However, the Banque de France is also considering two more unfavourable scenarios. GDP growth would remain positive in all scenarios, but inflation would jump to 3.3% in the most pessimistic scenario.

A new period of great uncertainty

March 2026 therefore marks a real turning point, the consequences of which are already considerable for the economy in general and road transport in particular. The sharp rise in oil and gas prices, directly linked to persistent tensions in the Middle East, is putting considerable pressure on the purchasing power of the French. This situation contributes to a resurgence of inflation, which is severely affecting households.

In this context, consumption, traditionally the motor for economic growth in France, remains weak. At the same time, business investment is hampered by a climate of prolonged uncertainty, illustrating the difficulty of committing to expenditures in such an unstable environment.

Soaring diesel prices: very strong impacts… with slow repercussions

In this context, road transport prices in France have surprisingly stagnated. They showed a very slight increase of 0.1% in March 2026 compared to the previous month. Despite the panic in oil prices, and their almost immediate impact on diesel at the pump, the impact on road transport prices is apparently slow to materialise.

Source: Upply Freight Index – Route France

Variations in road transport costs are closely linked to changes in the price of professional diesel fuel. At the request of the Minister of Transport, Philippe Tabarot, and the professional road transport organisations, The National Road Committee (CNR), which usually publishes professional diesel indices on a monthly basis, has switched to a twice-monthly periodicity. This monitoring illustrates the magnitude and abruptness of the rise in diesel prices. For the first half of March, the professional diesel index rose by more than 23%, from 193 to 238. For the second half of the month, the index increased by more than 8%, climbing to 258. Over the whole month, the index recorded a rise of 28%.

The impact of the surge in fuel costs experienced in March will most certainly be reflected in prices in April, but it is highly likely that it will not cover the entire increase and margin points will be permanently lost for carriers (...)

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