French economic activity grew by only 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025, according to INSEE estimates published on April 30. This very small increase comes in a context of budgetary restrictions and strong uncertainty for global trade. Of course, after the 0.1% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2024, one could call this figure a rebound, but that would be ignoring the fact that many components of GDP are showing negative trends.
In the domestic market, household consumption has stagnated, despite the fall in inflation which is restoring purchasing power. Public spending, which had supported growth in 2024, slowed sharply (0.1%), business investment continued to decline and the construction sector plunged.
On the international scene, Donald Trump continued and even accentuated his pressure on the global economy, blowing hot and cold with China, Europe and the rest of the world, particularly in the automotive sector or that of steel and aluminium. The negative impact of the trade war still lies ahead of us.
It is therefore not surprising that the business climate in France measured by INSEE remained "gloomy" in April. At 96.4, it is below its long-term average of 100, with a slight erosion in construction, down to 97, but a very pronounced decline in retail (-5 points month-on-month, to 95). The business climate, on the other hand, is rebounding significantly in industry (+3 points to 99) and more modestly in services (+1 point to 98).
The INSEE monthly economic survey shows that the business climate in road freight transport is stagnating below its long-term average, even if it has recovered slightly compared to the November 2024 low.
Source: INSEE monthly economic survey.
Similarly, business leaders' opinion on the outlook for development has improved slightly, but remains in negative territory.
Source: INSEE monthly economic survey. The results are presented in the form of opinion balances for the questions with 3 modes “increasing”, “stable” and “decreasing”. A balance of opinion is the difference between the percentage of "increasing" responses and the percentage of "decreasing" responses.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Route France
This fragile situation has weighed on road transport prices in France. The decline observed since February continued, with a month-on-month drop of 0.5% in April. However, an analysis of the various parameters that make up transport prices shows that this drop is ultimately quite moderate (...)