According to the monthly business survey by the Banque de France, published on March 10, 2026, growth in France's gross domestic product for the first quarter is expected to fluctuate between 0.2% and 0.3%, bolstered in particular by market services. The Banque de France warned that, “however, this technical forecast is subject to downside risk given the uncertainties surrounding the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on supply chains and energy prices, which could weigh on activity towards the end of the quarter”.
In February, industrial production continued its upward trend at a pace broadly in line with business leaders' expectations. However, there are disappointments in certain sectors which are traditionally major providers of flows for road freight transport."Some activities in which a more marked increase had been expected recorded a decline or limited growth. This was particularly the case in the automotive sector, which was penalised by the contraction of the domestic market and temporary supply difficulties, as well as in the pharmaceutical and metal and metal products sectors”, explains the Banque de France in its survey. Conversely, the chemical, machinery and equipment sectors and the computer-electronic-optical manufacturing sector are supporting growth, while demand for components remains dynamic, particularly in the health, telecommunications, and defence sectors.
In the construction sector, activity increased in February at a rate above its long-term average, but contractors anticipate a sharp slowdown in activity in March.
Uncertainty and gloom are reflected in the business climate as measured by INSEE. In February, the composite indicator of the business climate in France lost almost two points. At 97.4, it is moving away from its long-term average. It remains above the 100 threshold in industry but below in construction, services, and retail.
Political instability since the dissolution of the National Assembly in June 2024 is exacerbating this climate of uncertainty, pushing economic actors into a wait-and-see approach. Geopolitical tensions, particularly due to the American and Israeli strikes on Iran, will very likely fuel further uncertainty and reinforce this wait-and-see attitude.
Despite slight growth, the road transport market in France took a steep downward turn at the start of this year, with prices collapsing by 1.6% month-on-month. This is no longer the slight decline seen in January, but a real plunge. Such a drop had not been observed since August 2024.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Route France
In this context, the outbreak of the conflict in Iran is very bad news, for both road carriers and shippers, with a very real threat of stagflation. While the decline in volumes is already here, inflationary threats are back. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, in response to Israeli-American military strikes, immediately caused oil prices to surge, with a barrel projected to be over $100, and consequently diesel prices as well.
In the first week of March 2026, the CNR observed an increase of approximately 20% in professional diesel. This increase led to a price hike of more than 4% in just one week of the total cost price of a long distance vehicle.