BAROMETER. The freight transport market in France is suffering from numerous crippling uncertainties: sluggish activity, variations in diesel costs, inflation in certain cost items. French carriers are concerned that the ecotax could return and the elimination of reduced TICPE (excise tax on energy products) rates is on the table.
Internationally, the month of June was marked by a resurgence of tension, with the Israeli and then American bombings of Iran. As a direct consequence, oil prices soared: the price of a barrel of Brent (the benchmark barrel in Europe), which was $66.55 on June 10, 2025, rose to $78.69 on June 19 and exceeded $80 on the morning of Monday, June 23, its highest level since January 2025. This pressure on prices has had a direct impact on the cost of diesel at the pump: commercial diesel saw a price increase of around 3.4% in June, breaking with the continuous decline recorded since January. This flareup, however, cooled down fairly quickly.
At the national level, the INSEE has revised French GDP growth downwards with a growth forecast of only 0.6% for 2025, after a rise of 1.1% in 2024, which represents a modest gain of 18 billion euros. The only good news: France avoided a recession. But household consumption and business investment are slowing, with the latter expected to decline by 0.5% in 2025. In the eurozone, GDP growth is expected to reach 0.9%, according to the latest forecasts from the European Commission. Compared to its European neighbours, France is lagging behind: in the first quarter of 2025, GDP grew by 0.6% in Spain, 0.4% in Germany, 0.3% in Italy, and only 0.1% in France. Furthermore, France is suffering from an increase in debt which will require drastic cost-cutting measures in the Finance Bill, in a fragile political context, which suggests that there will be great instability in the autumn.
Demand that remains fragile
In this gloomy context, road transport prices in France stagnated in June, showing just a very slight increase of 0.3% over one month. The political and economic situation has slowed down transport demand and frozen price negotiations between shippers and carriers on summer issues, leading to persistent uncertainty in the market.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Route France
Since 2024, price trends have fluctuated within a range of -1.0% to +1.5%, indicating reduced volatility in road transport markets. This stabilisation reflects more a weakness in demand than an improvement in the confidence of market players, in a global context marked by geopolitical tensions, uncertain tariff rates and persistent logistical challenges (...)
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