The upward trend in road transport prices in Europe, which began in the first quarter, was confirmed and extended into the second quarter. The main cause is known: the outbreak of the conflict in Iran on February 28, 2026, caused a sharp rise in fuel prices which caused the operating costs of carriers to skyrocket. While President Trump initially mentioned a 4- to 6-week operation for the strikes, the conflict has become bogged down. In the second quarter, diesel prices in the European Union averaged €1.94 per litre, up 12% compared to the previous quarter and 27% year-on-year. They reached a peak of €2.19 in April before dropping back to €1.76 during the last week of June, 17% less than at the end of the first quarter.
While the effect of the conflict was only felt on the contract market in the first quarter, the shockwave has now spread to the spot market:
The index of contracted road freight rates in Europe stood at 148.0 in the second quarter of 2026, an increase of 7.9 points compared to the first quarter of 2026 and 15.2 points compared to the second quarter of 2025.
The European spot road freight rate index reached 146.8 points, representing an increase of 14.6 points quarter-on-quarter and 13.9 points year-on-year.
Content source : Upply
"The second quarter confirms a structural change in the European road freight market. After three quarters of divergence, contract and spot rates are once again moving in tandem, driven by cost pressures rather than freight demand”, said Thomas Larrieu, CEO of Upply.
Demand has indeed remained very moderate. Road freight volumes of trade between major EU economies fell by 1.6% year-on-year in the second quarter. The most significant declines were recorded on two of the main corridors, Germany-France (-3.9%) and Spain-France (-3.6%), partially offset by the Germany-Poland corridor (+1.5%).
The overall decline is significantly less pronounced than in the first quarter, where volumes fell by 8%, which seems to indicate a stabilisation of volumes rather than a deterioration. Nevertheless, it is clear that the price increase has not been driven by demand, with the European economy remaining in a difficult situation.
In the first half of 2026, the road freight transport sector faced another major shock: the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on fuel prices, a major cost item for carriers. Four years after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, a new major inflationary surge is hitting the sector, with soaring costs weakening carriers' cash flow despite government aid measures, and rising prices affecting shippers.
To date, given the stalemate in the conflict, there are no signs of détente. Prices are therefore expected to remain at high levels in the 2nd part of the year due to increased costs. Demand, however, is expected to remain moderate. Indeed, by reviving inflation, the conflict in the Middle East is weighing on household consumption and business investment, which has weakened growth prospects, particularly in Europe where forecasts were already gloomy.
> Download the report on European road freight rates in Q2 2026