The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the global economy in general and on the French economy in particular is beginning to manifest itself very concretely. Beyond the immediate consequences on fuel prices, linked to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the crisis is causing a clear downward correction in growth prospects.
The French economy experienced a month of April 2026 marked by stagnation in activity and persistent inflation, confirming fears of a lasting slowdown. According to INSEE, GDP stalled in the first quarter, with zero growth (0.0%), after a timid rebound of +0.2% at the end of 2025. But above all, the business climate index lost 3 points to settle at 94. You have to look back to the Covid period to see lower scores, which reflects the concern of the economic community. Companies surveyed by the Banque de France anticipate a slowdown in industry and a stabilisation in services and construction, in a context of increased uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions, largely determined by the situation in the Middle East.
Household consumption, the traditional driver of growth, remains sluggish (-0.1% in the first quarter of 2026), hampered by declining purchasing power. Indeed, inflation has started to rise again. Over a year, consumer prices rose by 2.2% in April 2026, after +1.7% in March, due to the surge in energy prices (+14.3% following +7.4%). The increases in the minimum wage (+2.4% on June 1st) and pensions are not enough to compensate for the rise in prices, particularly that of fuels, directly affected by the global energy crisis.
Brent crude nearly reached $120 at the end of April, an increase of almost 50% since the beginning of the year. Analysts now anticipate sustained high oil prices, between $150 and $200 per barrel if the blockade persists. This situation risks exacerbating stagflation and weighing on the already fragile economic recovery.
In this context, road transport prices in France saw a drastic increase in April, correcting the stagnation observed in March. They jumped 8.0% in just one month.
Since the UFI index was created, such a month-on-month increase had never been observed. The increase in April 2026 exceeded by almost 4% that established in April 2022, after the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Road France
Under these conditions, it is not surprising that transport prices also set a new record (...)