After Maersk's publication of sparkling 2024 financial results, chief executive Vincent Clerc was cautious about the prospects for an early, large-scale return of traffic to the Suez Canal. He did not rule it out for the second half but stressed that it would be a major operation, which would be costly and complex to carry out. Maersk's position echoes that of MSC, which informed its clients on 21 January that it would continue to use the Cape of Good Hope route until further notice. On 25 January, CMA CGM also issued a communiqué in which it said it would "continue to prioritize alternative routes, including a significant reliance on passage via the Cape of Good Hope".
For the shipping companies, the stakes are colossal. There is absolutely no need for them to provoke a rates war when one is already simmering.
It is still too early to have the February figures but, in January, the port of Shanghai set a new record by handling more than 5 million TEU. This can be explained partly by continuing growth in the intra-Asian trades. Above all, however, traffic was boosted by strong growth in demand from the United States. Importers there hastened to place orders before the introduction of the fresh customs tariffs promised by new president Donald Trump. The port of Los Angeles beat a 117-year-old record by handling 924,245 TEU, up 8.1% year on year. Growth was even more impressive at the port of Long Beach, where traffic rose 41.4% year on year to 952,733 TEU. "The Port of Long Beach started the new year with its strongest January on record and its second-busiest month ever, largely driven by retailers moving cargo ahead of the anticipated tariffs on goods from China, Mexico and Canada," the port authority said in a statement.
No new attacks have been announced since the start of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, even if the Houthi rebels have said that they will continue to target ships linked with Israeli interests and have threatened to resume hostilities if the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas breaks down. There has been, therefore, a palpable de-escalation in the Red Sea since the crew of the Galaxy Leader was set free. The Aspides military operation, which was launched to protect ships from Houthi attacks, has nevertheless been extended for another year by the European Union, which means it will last until 28 February 2026. It has been assigned new missions, moreover. It now needs to "be able to collect information, in addition to data necessary to protect vessels, on arms trafficking and on shadow fleets with a view to sharing this information with member states, the European Commission, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the International Criminal Police Organisation (INTERPOL), the European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation (EUROPOL) and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO)".
The American Federal Maritime Commission approved the launch of the first Premier Alliance services to and from the United States, with just a few days to go before it was due to start operations. Fortunately, HMM, ONE and Yang Ming had already drawn up plans for their joint services.
Following an investigation launched under the Biden administration, which concluded that Chinese acts, policies and practices were intended to enable China to dominate the shipping, logistics and shipbuilding sector, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) caused shockwaves in the shipping industry with its proposal that taxes should be imposed on Chinese vessels calling in US ports. The proposal recommends slapping charges of up to $1.5m for each call in a US port made by a Chinese-built ship and $500,000 for companies operating even one Chinese-built ship or having ordered one for use in for their fleets. A tax of $1m per port call would also be imposed on all operators of ships based in China, including COSCO. The USTR plans to hold a public hearing on 24 March to discuss the proposed measures, which also include incentives to use American ships to transport US goods.
Was this just a warning shot or a real threat? What is sure is that such measures would distort competition between the shipping companies and increase transport costs.
A series of general rate increases (GRIs) have been announced for the month of March, but they will only be enforceable in the market if there is a new reduction in shipping capacity. The fact is that numerous new services are currently being launched with bigger ships, as the new shipping alliances take up position in the market.