Five years after Brexit, the UK economy has not collapsed, but trade in goods has suffered, which has had an impact on the transport and logistics sector.
Brexit or not, the British economy remains firmly anchored in second place in the European rankings. With a gross domestic product of $3,644 billion in 2024, according to World Bank data, the UK is behind Germany and ahead of France, Italy and Spain. Globally, the country ranks 6th in the GDP ranking, behind the US, China, Germany, Japan and India. It is therefore a major producer of wealth.
The UK officially left the European Union on 31 January 2020, while remaining in the single market and in the customs union during a transition period of eleven months. While some observers predicted an economic catastrophe, this did not occur. Certainly, in 2020, the UK experienced a 10.4% contraction in GDP, stronger than Germany or France, but it would be quite inaccurate to blame it solely on the effects of Brexit. That year, the dominant factor for change was undoubtedly the Covid-19 pandemic. The dynamic rebound of 2021 and 2022 also demonstrates this.
Like most major European economies, The UK then experienced a slowdown in activity in 2023 and even two quarters of recession. But here too it would be a little too easy to blame Brexit. Germany also experienced a recession in 2023, which even extended into 2024, which was not the case in the UK, where the GDP grew by 1.1% last year. A figure both higher than the forecast (0.9%) and that of the previous year (+0.4%).
However, Brexit may have had an aggravating effect on certain parameters. This is the case, for example, in terms of inflation. All European countries have been hit hard, but in the UK, labour shortages have been made worse by Brexit, which has “slightly exacerbated inflationary pressures,” the economist Stephen Hunsaker said. This phenomenon was particularly felt in the road freight transport sector. Overall, the UK is showing quite weak growth and is suffering from a weak increase in productivity. These difficulties date back to the global financial crisis of 2008. So Brexit did not create this situation, but it did not help it either.
Brexit has, however, weighed on the development of foreign trade. The United Kingdom relied on its new-found freedom to establish trade agreements outside of the European Union. But this policy called “Global Britain” failed. Most British ports have not returned to 2019 activity levels.
Since 2020, public opinion in Britain has evolved, and current tensions with the United States could make a further case for appeasement. At a summit held on 19 May 2025, the first of its kind since Brexit, the United Kingdom and the EU concluded a ‘new strategic partnership’ on security, defence and trade, which could be good news for transport and logistics professionals.
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