Figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) show a year-on-year increase of 5.5% in global air cargo traffic in July 2025, and a 6% increase on international routes alone. This represents a real rebound from the modest 0.6% rate recorded in June, allowing the industry to match the growth rates observed in March and April, when the prospect of the introduction of new US customs duties, initially scheduled for May, had boosted demand.
In seasonally adjusted data, volumes saw the second largest increase of the year, with growth of 5.1%, reaching a total of around 24 billion tonne-kilometres transported. "These figures are a consequence of the US tariff revisions in July, and shippers' attempts to minimize their impacts by frontloading or opting for air cargo instead of other slower modes of transport," IATA said.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
All international routes benefited from the growth trend, with the exception of the Asia-North America axis, which recorded its third consecutive month of decline with a 1% year-on-year drop in volumes in July. This shows an improvement from the 4.2% drop in June, but the new customs tariffs are undoubtedly affecting demand.
In response to these massive tariffs imposed by the United States, Asian manufacturing is turning to other markets, particularly Europe, which is reflected in air cargo figures. The Asia-Europe corridor posted growth of 13.5% in July, after already growing by 10.5% in June. The Africa-Asia route, after several months of sharp decline, is also returning to growth (+12.5%). Volumes also saw a double-digit increase in intra-Asia traffic, up 10.3%. Asian airlines logically appear to be the main beneficiaries of this movement with an increase in volumes of 11.1%, followed by African and European airlines.
The latter also benefited from the performance of the Europe-North America corridor, boosted by the prospect of the effective entry into force of additional customs tariffs. Traffic increased by 9.6% year-on-year, 5.6 points higher than in June 2025.
During the first seven months of 2025, global traffic is expected to have grown by 3.1% compared to the same period in 2024, thanks to the rebound in July. Overall, the increase in volumes is more or less in line with that of capacity. However, on international routes alone, supply is growing slightly faster than demand.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
In July, global capacity (ACTK) increased by 3.9% year-on-year, reaching approximately 53.4 billion tonne-kilometres. This is mainly due to the increase in available cargo capacity in the belly holds of passenger aircraft, which showed an increase of 7.3% year-on-year in July, and 5.2% month-on-month. This is explained in particular by the intensification of the passenger flight schedule in summer, due to strong summer vacation demand.
Meanwhile, all-cargo supply increased by only 1.0% year-on-year. "This was expected considering the continued contraction seen along the main international corridor of North America Asia, which is heavily reliant on dedicated freighters, and the remaining high-risk or restrictive airspace on the cargo routes to and from the Middle East derived from the geopolitical tension", IATA said.
According to IATA, average unit revenue in July, surcharges included, increased by 0.8% month-on-month but decreased by 2% year-on-year. Overall, access to capacity is not currently a problem, which explains these modest fluctuations. Upply data shows freight rates trending downward month-on-month, but by a fairly moderate amount. Year-on-year growth was strongest on the Europe/North America East Coast corridor, which can be explained by the anticipated effect of customs tariffs.
Source: Upply Freight Index
In the first half of the year, the uncertainties created by the new US trade policy had an effect of generally boosting global trade, with shippers rushing to place orders before the introduction of the new customs tariffs. However, the developments observed on the Asia-North America corridor, which has experienced a sort of advanced preview of the impact of very high tariffs, illustrate the exposure of the air cargo industry to this new risk.
As of now, several unfavourable signals are appearing. "Global manufacturing contracted in July with the PMI falling to 49.66, the second dip below the 50-mark growth threshold since January. New export orders also remained negative at 48.2 for the fourth month, reflecting waning confidence amid US trade policy uncertainty”, IATA said.
On the other hand, the US administration has implemented its plan to extend to all countries the end of the de minimis exemption from customs duties for packages worth less than USD 800. A measure that will weigh on the air cargo industry by affecting one of its most profitable segments: cross-border e-commerce.
Finally, the global economic context, marked by great uncertainty, is leading households and businesses to adopt a cautious attitude towards spending and investment. In 2025, the traditional end-of-year peak season should therefore prove to be fairly quiet.