The net tonnage of container ships transiting the Suez Canal totalled 72.1 million tonnes in the first eight months of 2026, according to a communique from the Suez Canal Authority on 16 September. This amounts to an increase of 54.2% compared to the same period in 2025. For some weeks now, the big container shipping companies have been increasing the number of transits made by 10,000 TEU-plus vessels through the Red Sea.
The principal driver of this trend is not demand. The shipping companies have made this choice above all for profitability reasons. The journey round the Cape of Good Hope does not allow them to make the same number of round trips in a year. In the meantime, operational costs have increased greatly, and the tonne-mile ratio has shot up. Since all the big companies use fairly similar cost optimisation models, it is logical that they should choose to make greater use of Suez at much the same time. None of them wants to lose a decisive competitive advantage.
Given the sharp increase in bunker prices, the shorter route via the Suez Canal has become more attractive from a simple mathematical point of view. All the more so since the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) has been making great efforts to entice the shipping companies to return. "Flexible policies and effective communication with clients have resulted in the return of a significant number of maritime services to transiting through the Canal, said SCA chairman Admiral Ossama Rabiee.
If the return is maintained over time, the shipping companies will need to manoeuvre cleverly to avoid a sharp drop in freight rates, given the sector’s endemic overcapacity. The equation will not be easy to resolve, given the large number of unknowns they face.
On 25 September, the price of very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) stood at USD868 per tonne on the Singapore open market, compared to USD689 per tonne in Rotterdam. This was the first time for decades that there has been such a big difference. The prospect of a shortage is much more apparent in Asia than in Europe at the moment. This sort of indicator is very important for the shipping companies. On average, fuel represents 25% of their operating costs per slot on any given voyage. This could show shippers why the shipping companies are intransigent in their application, sometimes by force, of “exceptional” additional fuel surcharges.
In addition, we can see that the difference between the price of VLSFO and IFO380 (heavy fuel oil) stands at more than USD150 per tonne. With longer routes currently in use, this amounts to a bonus for fleets widely equipped with scrubbers, as is the case largely for that of MSC.
Intense cyclone season in Asia
It had been expected; now it has been confirmed. “East Asia’s 2026 typhoon season has seen above-normal activity, with several severe typhoons (Bavi, Dolphin, Narra, Peilou and Chan-Hom) making landfall in a two-week period, resulting in severe flooding, congestion and delays in vessel operations throughout the region,” Maersk said in a message to its customers on 4 September. This is a major source of market tension, since these events delay port operations and cause congestion.
These seasonal meteorological factors should be made a permanent feature in the decision-making processes of supply chain managers under the heading of risk evaluation and management.
China opens new canal to improve access to the Guangxi region
On 16 September, China inaugurated the Pinglu Canal in the Guangxi region. The new canal has been built to give better access to western China and develop trade with South East Asia. It links the Xijiang River to the Beibu Gulf (aka Gulf of Tonkin) and, according to its developers, should reduce transport costs by 18-30% and generate CNY5 billion (€640 million) in annual cost savings. It offers direct access to the sea for products from south west China. Until now, they had to be taken to the port of Guangzhou, which represents a 560-kilometre detour in relation to the new route (...)
As in the previous month, Asia-Europe rates were under downward pressure, while rates in the transpacific market held up well. At the same time, the introduction of exceptional fuel surcharges compensated in part for the decline in freight rates between Asia and Europe (...)