The linear rise in prices that has already been seen over 2019 has continued into September (+ 0.5% compared to August).
Source: Upply
The market has been driven by several different factors:
The impact of the drop in diesel prices during the previous month does not seem to have affected the transport price inflation in September. The international tensions in the Persian Gulf may have already been taken into account…the price of diesel is also taking on an upward trend!
Let us take a more in-depth look at import/export activity for France’s largest region: more than 50% of France’s traffic flow leaves from or arrives in Ile-de-France.
The following table shows price variations in the Ile-de-France region. It is striking to note that the curves have the same form as those for the whole of France. The area around Paris is also the country’s barycentre in transport terms.
Source: Upply
The volumes exported are more or less identical to those imported. There is, however, a slight difference in the mileage costs: 1.53€/km for exports compared to 1.47€/km for imports. This difference comes mainly from the geographical mix of traffic flows: the import-export balance is positive from the regions in Northern France heading towards the South because the cost of transport in the Northern regions is lower than elsewhere owing to the competition from carriers operating down from Belgium and Germany.
However, the difference between the two curves is much more apparent in 2019 than in 2018.
Owing to the continuing strong activity in the Northern regions, the price market tends to be much more resilient for imports. The export market, however, almost certainly suffers from a lower level of consumer spending in the Southern regions and a downward pressure on returns towards the North and Germany.
Source : Insee, CNR