In recent days, the hypothesis of a "rising productivity gap" has been a recurring theme in every conversation. This notion, very present in the 2024 Draghi report on European competitiveness, reappeared in a study by the OFCE (French Observatory of Economic Trends. According to this study, the decline of the European economy, and particularly France’s, compared to that of the United States, comes from productivity that has been in decline for a quarter of a century, created by the lack of business investment.
In France, the current political situation is not helping matters. The resignation of the new Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu on October 6, a few hours after the announcement of his government and only a few weeks after taking office to replace François Bayrou, gives a very chaotic view of public affairs in our country. The decision of the President of the Republic to reappoint Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister on October 10 added even more to the general confusion.
In its latest economic projections, published in September, the Banque de France has slightly revised its forecasts for 2025 upwards, now counting on a 0.7% increase in GDP, thanks to the arrival of more solid growth at mid-year and more dynamic activity in the third quarter. On the other hand, the uncertain national context and the less favourable international environment (euro exchange rate, oil prices, weakened external demand) have led to a downward revision of the outlook for 2026 and 2027. Growth is expected to reach 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027, with a gradual recovery in consumption and private investment, while foreign trade is expected to contribute relatively little.
Inflation, after reaching 2.3% in 2024, is expected to remain below 2% over the next period, coming in at 1.0% in 2025 (thanks to the fall in energy prices and moderation in services), then 1.3% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. Core inflation (excluding energy and food) is also expected to decline from 1.7% in 2025 to 1.6% in subsequent years. The increase in wages, higher than that of prices, could support purchasing power (+1% per year), thus promoting household consumption.
For the immediate future, however, uncertainty is eroding business and consumer confidence. According to data published by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), the composite business climate index in France stood at 95.9 points in September 2025, a drop of 0.3 points over one month, and well under its long-term average (100). Business leaders are worried. Furthermore, the Banque de France emphasises that a budgetary consolidation less ambitious than the 5.4% deficit forecast for 2025 would not stimulate growth, with fiscal uncertainty encouraging households and businesses to adopt more cautious behaviour. Despite gains in purchasing power linked to the fall in energy prices, the French are limiting their spending: INSEE forecasts an increase in consumption of only 0.3% in the 4th quarter of 2025, driven by services (+1.4%), while purchases of goods stagnate (+0.1%).
Despite extremely unfavourable market conditions, road transport prices have held up on the French market. In September, they even showed a slight increase of 0.2% month-on-month.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Road France
However, a comparison of the development since the beginning of the year shows a 2025 curve below or only slightly above that of 2024, which shows the sector's difficulty in passing on cost inflation (...)