In 2023, road transport and rail freight transport in Spain experienced globally unfavourable developments despite the economic situation. The situations are however very different for each mode of transport.
In 2023, the development of the Spanish economy was noticeably different to that of the eurozone as a whole. There are several points that affect the situation of land-based transport, and they deserve to be highlighted.
Source: Bank of Spain, June 2024 forecast. (1) As % of labour force, annual average. (2) As % of GDP.
- Economic activity
After the strong post-Covid rebound, the Spanish economy entered a slowdown phase. However, activity, as measured by GDP, grew by 2.5% in 2023 compared to 0.4% in the euro area. The latest forecasts of the Bank of Spain, published in June 2024, predict an increase of 2.3% in 2024, 1.9% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. The growth differential with the eurozone should therefore be maintained.
Household consumption and investment (GFCF) are expected to be the main drivers of this growth. The external sector should make a slight contribution in 2024, which would become negative in 2025 and 2026, according to the Bank of Spain, due to the expected increase in imports.
- Rising prices
As in other European countries, Spain has experienced a slowdown in the increase in the consumer price index (CPI) published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE). After peaking at 10.8% YoY in July 2022, CPI inflation fell to 5.7% in December 2022 and 3.1% in December 2023 (3.5% YoY average). As in other European countries, there is a clear disinflation of manufactured products and a resistance of services. However, the overall trend is towards a further decline in inflation. The consensus of economists expects increases of 3.1% in 2024 (annual average) and 2.3% in 2025. The Bank of Spain is significantly more optimistic with predictions of 3% and 2% respectively based on the harmonised index.
- Foreign trade
In 2023, exports of goods decreased by 1.4% in value to €383.7 billion. Imports also fell, by 7.2%, to €424.2 billion. The trade balance deficit was reduced from €68.1 billion to €40.5 billion (-40%).
As for exports, the main element in the 5.1% fall in exports is the decline in the volume of exports of energy products, down by 16.2% and the fall by 4.3% of other products excluding energy. During the 2nd half of 2023, Spain was affected by the consequences of the slowdown of the economies of the European Union (EU). Exports, however, measured in volume terms, progressed in the directions of Poland (10.1%), Germany (+6,9%), and Italy (+5%), but stagnated in the direction of France (-0,2%). The EU accounted for 63% of Spain's exports. Sales towards the United Kingdom rose by 6.1%.
Imports declined by 5.4% in terms of volume and by 2.6% for products excluding energy items. Imports from the EU (49.3% of the total) rose by 2.4% in value terms. There were higher increases from Germany (9.2%, especially automobiles, of which Germany is the main supplier), Romania (12.5%) and Poland (8.6%). The decreases are linked in particular to flows from France (-3.2%) and the United Kingdom (-3.9%).
Road freight transport
In 2022, the overall activity of Spanish carriers had decreased by 1.3%, to 266.7 billion tonnes km (bn tkm). This decline follows the strong recovery observed in 2021 (+11.4%) which had made it possible to return to and exceed the pre-COVID-crisis levels. In 2023, a further decline was observed (-1.25% to 263.4 bn tkm). However, this figure masks a sharp increase in the first quarter of the year (11.8%), followed by a decline in the following three quarters.
Source: Ministry of Transport and Sustainable Mobility (MTMS). % changes are year-on-year.
Over the whole of 2023, activity stagnated in the domestic market (+0.1%). Internationally, it contracted by 4%, with a fall of 3.8% in exports (44.7 bn tkm) and 5.5% in imports (33.2 bn tkm). Cabotage recorded a slight increase of 0.4% to 7.2 bn tkm. In total, the cumulative decline of the domestic market and the international market amounted to 2.5% year-on-year.
Expressed in tonnes transported, the evolution was significantly different. 2022 figures showed a decline of 2.4% to 1.59 bn tonnes. In 2023, activity increased by 0.9% (1.6 bn tonnes), with a sharp decline internationally (-5%), while activity on the Spanish market increased by 1.2%.
Rail freight transport
According to figures published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), rail freight traffic fell by 1.7% in 2023 to 9.6 billion tkm after stagnating in 2022 (+0.2%). The ground lost during the Covid-19 crisis has not been recovered since the level of traffic recorded in 2023 was still 5% lower than the peak of 2019 (...)
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