The economic slowdown is now palpable in the heavy goods vehicle market. Registrations of vehicles over 3.5 tonnes fell by 6.3% in 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching 327,896, according to ACEA data. The basis for comparison is, however, high because in 2023, registrations had experienced exceptional growth of more than 15%, which was explained in particular as a side effect of Covid-19. In 2021-2022, shortages of raw materials and semiconductors following the pandemic had disrupted vehicle production, significantly delaying the delivery of orders placed during this period. Delivery times have now returned to normal. According to the annual survey of the Observatory of Industrial Vehicles by BNP Paribas, the period to obtain a vehicle bought from a manufacturer has decreased from nearly a year in June 2022 to 87 days in December 2024, returning to the level before the health crisis. In vehicle bodybuilders, the lead time has decreased to 111 days, compared to a peak of 152 days in December 2022.
Despite the decline, the level of registrations in 2024 remained higher than the 5-year average.
In total, the Top 5 represented 69.4% of European Union registrations, compared to 68.6% in 2023.
Almost all European markets are affected by the downward trend, starting with the leading duo, France and Germany. However, the biggest decline was in Poland, where registrations plummeted by 21%, after already having experienced the lowest growth rate in the European top 15 in 2023. While Poland was in third place in terms of the number of registrations in 2023, it has now fallen to fifth position, behind Spain and Italy. These two countries recorded performances significantly higher than the European average, with a near-stagnation for Italy, and above all a jump of 12% for Spain, the only country in the Top 15, along with the Netherlands, to record growth in registrations. The buoyancy of the Spanish economy has also benefited the heavy goods vehicle market.
The case of Poland, on the other hand, is symptomatic of a slowdown in investment in equipment affecting several Eastern European flag states after a period of strong growth. This is particularly the case today in Lithuania the 8th-placed European road transport country. The Czech Republic and Hungary are also experiencing sharp declines in registrations, while the drop in Romania is more or less in line with the European average. Overall, the CEECs are expected to have recorded around 67,000 registrations (excluding Bulgaria) in 2024, a drop of almost 20% compared to the previous year, significantly higher than the average drop observed across the European Union.
Content source : ACEA
In 2023, the share of diesel vehicles in total vehicle registrations over 3.5t is as stable as it is overwhelming, since it represents 95.1% of the market. The drop in the number of registrations is a little less significant in the electric vehicle segment, but the volumes remain derisory, with a total of 7,516 vehicles registered in 2024 (-4.6%). Already a driver of growth in 2023 with an increase of 169.8%, Germany is continuing its momentum with 3,413 registrations of electric vehicles in 2024, which represents a further increase of 57.4%. As such it passes well ahead of France, which distinguished itself in 2023 by reaching the figure of 3,085 registrations, but fell back to 1,313 in 2024, a drop of 57.4%. These two countries represent just under two thirds of registrations of electric vehicles over 3.5 tonnes. The Netherlands, which exceeded the milestone of one thousand registrations in 2023, also fell by 42.3%. Sweden and Denmark complete the EU top five, ahead of major players such as Spain and Italy. In summary, we are still very far from a massive decarbonization movement in favour of electric vehicles, and diesel engines remain ultra-dominant.
Source: ACEA
Vehicles over 16 tonnes accounted for 82% of truck registrations of more than 3.5t in 2024. The market totalled 268,952 units, down 8.5%.
Within the Top 5, Poland lost the most ground with a decline of 22.8%, followed by Germany (-12.7%). The French and Italian markets are holding up better, with erosion limited to -2.4% and -1.8% respectively. Finally, Spain stands out with a very significant progression (+11.7%).
Content source: ACEA
According to data from the French Automobile Manufacturers Committee (CCFA), registrations of industrial vehicles over 5t on the French market reached 48,983 units in 2024, a very slight increase of 0.3%. The +16t segment, however, fell by 2.3% to 42,569 registrations.
After two years of strong growth, the road tractor market has plummeted, losing 10.3% down to 25,510 registrations. Conversely, the rigid truck market continues the rise that began in 2023. It increased by 15% to reach 23,473 registrations.
In addition, in 2024, the used commercial vehicle market fell by 0.7%, with a total of 51,126 registrations. This gloomy market is weighing on prices. According to the annual survey of professionals conducted by the BNP Paribas Industrial Vehicle Observatory (OVI), Nearly 80% of distributors had to lower their prices for tractor units, on average by 14%, while 20% were able to maintain them. Regarding the rigid trucks, "half of the distributors were able to maintain prices, while the other half lowered them by 11% on average," specifies the OVI.
Content source: CCFA
The heavy goods vehicle market is expected to continue to suffer in 2025. The economic slowdown has led to a deterioration in the profit margins of road carriers, who therefore have less room for manoeuvre to invest in expanding or renewing their fleets. The support mechanisms for the acquisition of electric vehicles could stimulate the market a little, but as we have seen, this concerns fairly low volumes. For 2025, the Industrial Vehicle Observatory predicts a general decline.
Source: OVI