BAROMETER. Transport prices fell very slightly in February on a month-on-month basis. Economic uncertainty has entered a new dimension, which has reduced transport demand even further.
Last month, we highlighted the political uncertainty that weighed on economic actors in France. But since then, the arrival of the new Trump administration in the United States has relegated all the Franco-French drama to the background: Will the Prime Minister be overthrown, can France reduce its budget deficit, how to balance our pension system? All these questions were pushed out of the limelight. The uncertainty has now shifted to the international arena, with a trade war launched on all fronts by the United States of Donald Trump. Combined with less dynamic than expected global demand, the trade battle is just beginning, and it will weigh on French exports this year.
Growth forecasts revised downwards
The Ministry of the Economy is sticking to the goal of a reduction of the public deficit to 5.4% of GDP in 2025. However, due to a possible increase in military spending and lower revenue forecasts, the Bank of France has lowered its growth forecast for 2025, predicting a GDP increase of 0.7% this year, against 0.9% anticipated in December. Yet, it was on this more optimistic hypothesis that the government’s budget forecasts were based.
The monetary institution takes note of a slowing down of...
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