June marked a significant slowdown for global air freight. New US trade policy is weakening global trade. Corridors linked to North America and the Middle East are particularly affected.
1/ The evolution of supply and demand
- Traffic June 2025
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global air cargo traffic measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK) grew by only 0.8% year-on-year in June 2025, compared to +2.2% in May. When seasonally adjusted, however, the volume increased by 1.6% compared to May, reaching around 23 billion tonne-kilometres, according to our estimates.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
As in May, the evolution of global air freight is strongly influenced by the new US tariff policy. The effect of forward purchasing to avoid future customs duties is fading. Most of the trade deals demanded by the US administration were being negotiated as of June, but warehouses are not indefinitely expandable. We are already seeing a weakening of global trade, which is disrupting traditional air freight flows.
The situation of American companies perfectly illustrates the major role of American trade policy on the evolution of flows: North American carriers recorded a drop in transported volumes of 8.3% overall, and of 6.1% on international routes. The collapse is particularly marked in the Asia-North America corridor, due to the significant additional tariffs applied to imports from China. For the second consecutive month, volumes fell year-on-year, losing 4.7% in June.
The Europe-North America route, so far less affected by additional tariffs is holding up better, with year-on-year growth of 4.8% in June. However, flows decreased by 3.7% compared to May, which shows that the stockpiling period before the new tariffs come into force is coming to an end.
Conversely, the Asia-Europe corridor is showing good momentum, with growth of 10.5% year-on-year in June, "supported by the technology, pharmaceutical and luxury sectors," specifies IATA.
Finally, apart from the trade war, another factor affected the air cargo industry in June: the conflict in the Middle East. Airlines have been urged to avoid flying over the area as much as possible. Flows decreased by 3% compared to May on the Middle East-Europe corridor. The Middle East-Asia route, which had been showing robust growth in recent months, also saw a sharp decline of 8.4% in June 2025 compared to the previous month, IATA noted.
- Year to date at the end of June 2025
Over the first six months of 2025, global traffic will still have grown by 2.8%, but the trend is clearly towards a decline. Conversely, the Asia-Europe corridor is showing good momentum, with growth of 10.5% year-on-year in June, "supported by the technology, pharmaceutical and luxury sectors," specifies IATA.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
- Capacity
Global capacity (ACTK) increased by 1.7% in June year-on-year, reaching 51.4 billion tonne-kilometres, slightly down from May. However, it is down 2.2% compared to May, which reflects "adjustments linked to the drop in demand on several routes," estimates IATA.
2/ Price trends
In June, the situation in the Middle East caused a month-on-month rebound in oil prices, which also had an impact on the price of kerosene, which rose by 8.7% compared to May. However, year-on-year, the price of kerosene remains down by 12.0%. The impact is therefore not decisive on the evolution of freight rates. According to IATA, cargo yields, including surcharges, fell by 2.5% year-on-year. However, it rebounded by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Upply data shows prices still trending upwards on the Europe/North America East Coast corridor, as in May. This movement is most likely driven by the forward purchasing of orders before a possible massive reintroduction of tariffs, because final demand is not particularly dynamic. Furthermore, the good performance of volumes on the Asia-Europe corridor also helps to support prices.
Source: Upply Freight Index
3/ The outlook
Beyond the additional costs induced by tariffs, the new American administration has created a climate of paroxysmal unpredictability in trade relations. Agreements or not, uncertainties remain and have reached such a level that it is impossible in the short term for a supply chain manager to reconfigure logistics chains on the basis of solid and lasting information. As for airlines, they are adapting to the new commercial situation by redeploying their capacity on certain routes, without any guarantee for the future. As a result, IATA now believes there is a risk of a significant slowdown in air cargo activity in the coming months.
This is all the more the case since a new project from the American administration, if it comes to fruition, will hit cross-border e-commerce, one of the major drivers of the air freight industry, hard. On July 30, the White House announced its intention to delete the de minimis exemption from customs duties on parcels worth less than USD 800 for all countries, as of August 29, 2025. Until now, this measure was applied only to shipments from China and Hong Kong, since April 2025. This is a major blow to air freight, the preferred means of transport for these shipments. The new US policy on de minimis could reduce DHL's profits by 3%, its chief financial officer estimated. American express companies UPS and FedEx are also on the front line.
More generally, the resumption of the trade war is destabilising economic fundamentals and therefore raising concerns about the evolution of demand in the second half of the year.
