BAROMETER. Unsurprisingly, road transport prices continued to fall in December on the French market, for the third consecutive month.
On the economic front, France ended the year with slightly more positive news than expected, despite the slight rebound in inflation (+3.7% in December against +3.5% in November): according to the latest monthly business survey from the Banque de France, the country may have recorded a GDP increase of close to 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, thus avoiding stagnation or even recession. The survey conducted by the Banque de France among 8,500 business leaders reveals that activity increased in December in industry, market services and construction. In industry, the increase was "particularly marked in chemicals, pharmaceuticals, motor vehicles and metallurgy. In the rubber-plastic and textile-clothing-footwear sectors, activity is falling, but at a slower pace than expected by business leaders last month," says the Bank of France.
It is therefore not surprising that the business climate improved by 0.6 points, driven by industry and services (+1 point each), but also retail trade (+4 points). At 98, "it remains below its long-term average", specifies INSEE.
A Third Consecutive Month of Price Decline
Under these conditions, road transport prices in France declined for the third consecutive month, showing a drop of 1.2% in December month-on-month. In other words, freight rates declined each month in the 4th quarter, with the cumulative decline reaching almost 3%.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Road France
The decline in road transport prices in France observed in December was expected. In November, diesel prices fell by 4.3%. The pass-through mechanism, which results in an impact on transport prices with about a month of delay, therefore worked well. Because with a share of between 20% and 26.5% of the total price of transport, the variation of diesel was in negative territory standing at -1.1% which is very close to the -1.2% of the Upply index.
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