Against all odds, France has demonstrated real resilience in the face of political and budgetary uncertainties. Activity showed signs of recovery in the third quarter of 2025, with GDP up +0.5%, after growth of +0.3% in the previous quarter. France has not slipped into recession and continues to perform better than Germany. According to the Bank of France's economic outlook report for November 2025, GDP in France is expected to grow slightly again in the 4th quarter, which would allow France to exceed the +0.8% growth expected for the whole of 2025. In Germany, however, growth is expected to be limited to +0.2%.
Does this resilience of the economy encourage optimism? After several months of stagnation, INSEE notes a slight improvement in the business climate, particularly in industry where the business climate index gained 4 points to reach 101, thus being slightly above the long-term average. Specifically, business leaders in industry are more optimistic about their future production and are seeing an improvement in their order books, according to INSEE. Business confidence also rebounded "very sharply" in retail and automotive trade, with the indicator gaining 7 points to reach 99. Dealers expect to sell more vehicles, garage owners also anticipate an influx of customers, while clothing and appliance retailers are already stocking their shelves in preparation for the holiday season. In short, the end-of-year peak season is approaching.
Another factor that may be fuelling optimism is the control of inflation. In France, consumer prices rose on average by 1% in October year-on-year, INSEE announced in its provisional estimate of October 31, after 1.2% in September and 0.9% in August. France is well below the euro zone average (+2.1% in October). This slowdown in inflation in France in October can be explained in particular by a more sustained fall in energy prices, and by a smaller increase in food prices.
However, this is not enough to revive consumption: fearing a tax increase in one form or another, households have restricted their spending. Businesses are adopting the same behaviour. They are limiting investments and prioritising building up their cash reserves to get through this uncertain period. It is only public spending which has been the driving force for the economy, inexorably deepening the deficit.
Under these conditions, road transport prices in France increased very slightly in October. They increased by 0.3% compared to September. The political uncertainties that are weighing heavily on the economic world are obviously being felt in the road transport sector.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Road France
Changes in road transport costs, and therefore indirectly in freight rates, are closely correlated with the price of professional diesel. In September and October, it increased by 0.7% and 0.3% respectively, which mechanically had an effect on the total cost. Thus, the Long Distance Articulated Unit (LD EA) index, published by the CNR, increased by 0.2% in September and remained stable the following month. We can therefore observe that the mechanism of passing on the variation in the cost of diesel with a one-month delay has once again been at work.
Before the summer, road freight transport executives had reported a relative improvement in their business. The improvement turned out to be short-lived (...)