BAROMETER. The French economy is showing resilience, despite an uncertain context. Inflation remains under control, but consumption and investment are stagnating. Road transport prices are rising, with a slight recovery due to the peak season.
Against all odds, France has demonstrated real resilience in the face of political and budgetary uncertainties. Activity showed signs of recovery in the third quarter of 2025, with GDP up +0.5%, after growth of +0.3% in the previous quarter. France has not slipped into recession and continues to perform better than Germany. According to the Bank of France's economic outlook report for November 2025, GDP in France is expected to grow slightly again in the 4th quarter, which would allow France to exceed the +0.8% growth expected for the whole of 2025. In Germany, however, growth is expected to be limited to +0.2%.
An improvement in the business climate
Does this resilience of the economy encourage optimism? After several months of stagnation, INSEE notes a slight improvement in the business climate, particularly in industry where the business climate index gained 4 points to reach 101, thus being slightly above the long-term average. Specifically, business leaders in industry are more optimistic about their future production and are seeing an improvement in their order books, according to INSEE. Business confidence also rebounded "very...
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