BAROMETER. Transport prices remained stagnant in December. The underlying trend indicates an inexorable fall in prices. Carriers are caught between the low-cost offer of foreign fleets and shippers who are lowering prices.
In December 2024, storm clouds continued to gather over French business. The business climate has lost ground again for the third consecutive month, sparing no sector except industry. The index stood at 94.3 in December, down 1.8 points, according to INSEE. To observe such a low figure in the past, we have to look back to July 2024, and if we go back a little further, to 2020 during the Covid-19 crisis.
We can make the link between the two low points in the business climate (July/December 2024) and the two major political crises in France that were the dissolution of the National Assembly by President Macron and the vote of no confidence for the Barnier government adopted on December 4, 2024. The first crisis disrupted the preparation phase of the 2025 budget and the second simply prevented its adoption, leaving business leaders in the greatest uncertainty. Then another 10 days passed between the appointment of François Bayrou as Prime Minister and the forming of the new government. This political instability increased the concerns of business circles, in an otherwise difficult economic context.
A slowdown in both the spot and contract markets
Under these conditions, road transport prices in France stagnated in December, with a very slight erosion of 0.1% which brought to an end the surprising momentum seen in November.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Route France
However, commercial diesel prices continued to progress, recording a rise of 0.6% in this month after two consecutive rises of 1.8% in October and November. The delayed pass-through mechanism for diesel prices appears to have been disrupted by the market’s sluggishness.
Price stabilisation is observed both on the spot market and on the contract market (...).
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