The new round of container shipping tender calls is getting under way. Should shippers sign up quickly or bide their time? Here are some of the responses we can currently offer.
Our annual counselling exercise on the container shipping tendering round is turning out to be increasingly perilous. It is nevertheless necessary in the ocean of uncertainty we are currently traversing.
We will present you here with the major factors to fit into your decision-making template so as to obtain a general framework. Operators will need to weight these factors to take account of the specific risks they face, however, and can add factors specific to their activity in line with the geographical nature of their activities and the kinds of goods involved.
1/ The fundamentals of the 2025-2026 negotiating round
Firstly, we will list the factors which seem to us unlikely to vary a great deal and which can therefore serve as a basis for reflection on the strategy to adopt in this year’s negotiating round.
- Cargo volumes
The slowdown in growth in east-west cargo volumes is becoming structural. This is fuelled by the nearshoring/friendshoring strategy which began 10 or so years ago and which can only be reinforced by the announcements made by the new Trump administration. We can estimate that it is reducing cargo volumes from Asia to the United States and Europe by 3-5%.
- Available shipping capacity
Endemic overcapacity is set to continue in 2026 and beyond, given the huge orders for new vessels placed by the shipping companies. Demolition levels are low and the charter market is continuing to thrive.
- Freight rates
We are currently seeing a pause in the collapse in freight rates which occurred this summer in the transpacific and Asia-Europe trades.
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