Our container shipping scenarios for H2 2026

The conflict in the Persian Gulf became the main event in the shipping world in the first half, even if the container sector was not the worst affected. At this midway point in the year, let us see here how our three scenarios for 2026 have fared and consider what H2 is likely to bring.

Last January, as part of our annual forecast of likely scenarios for the container sector, we built our analysis around three major hypotheses:

1. That the shipping companies would refuse to choose between the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope.

2. That there would be growing tension worldwide.

3. That a return to regulated freight rates could be on the cards.

Since then, the start of the conflict in Iran, which has led to the virtual paralysis of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, has disrupted the shipping business and, with it, world economic forecasts.

The performance of our three scenarios at the mid-year point

Scenario 1 – The Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope

Cape route still first choice for Asia-Europe trades

At the start of 2026, with no attack on commercial shipping from the Houthis for several months, the possibility of a return of ships to the Suez Canal was at the heart of management concerns at shipping and forwarding companies. In both cases, this possibility was being looked at very warily amid fears that it could have devastating financial consequences.

The start of the conflict in Iran and its extension to the wider Middle East region have turned this option into a more remote possibility, which is no longer on the agenda in 2026.

Going round the Cape of Good Hope is not the ideal solution. The increase in oil prices has considerably increased the shipping companies’ fuel bill on this much longer route and that is having an impact on their first quarter financial results. For the time being, however, the cape route is considered the least bad solution for several reasons:

• Demand is still weak on the major east-west shipping routes.
• With new ships continuing to come into operation until 2028, this model offers the prospect of soaking up overcapacity as far as this is possible.
• Navigating through open seas is safer during periods of international tension.
• The resurgence of organised piracy in the Arabian Gulf and off the coast of Somalia does not plead in favour of a large-scale return to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
• Even if there are less Houthi attacks now, there remains a real threat that they will resume, particularly since the start of the conflict in Iran.

The mechanics of the Asia-Europe route round the Cape of Good Hope, which are now well tested, have become standard for the shipping alliances. We should stress, however, that this route has also become synonymous with a deterioration in service quality and delays in delivery times.

Scenario 2 – Growing tension worldwide

During the first half of 2026, there was not a sea, strait or canal where a security incident or geopolitical problem had not been reported. This clearly shows that the planet is a prey currently to simultaneous and multipolar tensions.

The commercial shipping world has adapted to these constraints, which it has not chosen and which have sharply increased the tonne/mile ratios of cargo transported, as ships seek to avoid or skirt round the most sensitive areas. The worldwide surge in tension has led to the implacable conclusion that moving containers has today become more expensive, slower, more polluting and riskier (...)

To find out more, download our white paper fora mid-year review of our scenarios and the projections of our expert for the second half.