Were our 2025 container shipping scenarios on target in the first half and are they still valid for the second half? Let's examine them in light of the latest news.
In the annual forecast we published last January, we discussed three possible scenarios for the container shipping sector in 2025:
- MSC confirms its domination of the container shipping market
- MSC's supremacy comes under challenge and regulatory control is tightened
- The United States embarks on a great revival of its shipping industry
Where are we now, six months on ? These three scenarios still seem pertinent, except that scenario number three has taken on major proportions, almost relegating the other two to secondary status. Let us take a look at these three scenarios in their new order of importance.
1/ The great revival of the US shipping industry
The United States has proclaimed loudly and clearly that it aims to return to the merchant shipping sector, after having largely abandoned it during the last 30 years. It has also indicated that it wants to boost its position in the marine sector generally. The first signs of this return became apparent under the Biden administration but have been confirmed by the new Trump administration.
Firstly, the new administration has indicated that it aims to gain overall control of worldwide shipping routes in both the northern and southern hemispheres.
Secondly, the United States has become aware of its vulnerability in the maritime sector. Less than 1% of the world fleet is under American flag and China has built about 50% of that fleet. The United States now wants to remedy this, using a combined approach, destined to strengthen both the navy and the merchant fleet.
On 9 April 2025, Donald Trump signed a little publicised decree aimed at "Restoring America's Maritime Dominance", which provides for the creation of a maritime action plan. Moreover, on 17 April, following an investigation ordered by the Biden administration into Chinese practices in maritime trade and the maritime industries, the Office of the United States Trade Representative published a regulatory proposal involving taxing ships built in China or owned by Chinese interests. The aim is to revive shipbuilding in the United States, as well as in friendly countries like South Korea and Japan, where the sector is declining in favour of the "Chinese steamroller". The revival of the US maritime sector will thus be financed by the proceeds from taxes on foreign carriers (...)
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