INFOGRAPHICS. European road freight transport declined in 2023, reflecting the economy in general. This drop is reflected in almost all the different countries' domestic fleets.
Road freight transport activity fell by 3.2% in the European Union in 2023, according to the latest statistical report from Eurostat. With a total of 1,857 billion tonne-kilometres transported (bn tkm), growth is now only 2.4% compared to the pre-pandemic level of 2019.
Traffic expressed in tonnage declined even further: EU road carriers transported 13.117 billion tonnes in 2023, a decrease of 3.4% compared to 2022 and 3.2% compared to 2019 levels.
1/ The main European flag States
Content source: Eurostat - © Upply
In 2023, the Top 10 represented almost 83% of the European Union's overall traffic expressed in tonne-kilometres. It consists of the same countries as in 2022, but there are changes in the second half of the ranking. The Czech Republic and the Netherlands each fell one place, to the benefit of Romania and Lithuania. The long-term trend shows a slight concentration phenomenon since in 2014, the countries of the Top 10 took 80.2% of the traffic expressed in tonne-kilometres, i.e. 2.7 points less than in 2023.
- Top 5: Germany and France losing ground
The Top 5 alone, whose order remained unchanged in 2023 compared to 2022, accounts for 67% of traffic. The countries in this top 5 are the same as ten years ago, but with contrasting developments:
- Poland recorded a 1.9% drop in activity in 2023, suffering in particular from the backlash linked to the difficulties of the German economy. However, given the even more pronounced decline of the German-flagged fleet, it is now the only country to exceed the 300 billion tonne-kilometre mark. In ten years, the market share of the Polish-flagged carriers has increased by 4.5 percentage points.
- Germany, the market's former number 1 dethroned in 2017 by Poland, briefly regained its crown in 2018, before losing it again in 2019. Since then, the gap with Poland has only widened. In 2023, the activity of German road carriers fell by 5.8%, which is the biggest decline in the Top 5. The economic climate weighed heavily: Germany's GDP contracted by 0.2% in raw data. In 10 years, the German-flagged carriers have lost 4.2 points of market share.
- Spain did not escape decline, in a context of weak economic growth in Europe, but its erosion remains limited. The gap with Germany is narrowing. In the space of 10 years, the Spanish-flagged companies have grown their market share (1.8 points).
- France is struggling, even if it is doing a little better than Germany. The French-flagged companies saw a decrease of 2.4% to 169.2 billion tkm, which is the lowest level since 2017. In 2020, at the height of the Covid pandemic and lockdowns, traffic reached 169.6 billion tkm. The French market share stands at 9.1%, down 1.3 points compared to 2014.
- Italy, after two very good years, is experiencing a fairly sudden slowdown, with a decline of 3.9%. Activity is nevertheless above pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, the long-term trend shows a market share gain of 0.4 points.
While all the countries in the Top 5 are experiencing a drop in traffic of goods transported by carriers under their national flag in 2023, the situation is more contrasted in the rest of the ranking. In line with the general economic slump, which weighed on Europe's international trade, Dutch carriers experienced a significant decline of 4.4%. The Swedish-flagged fleet, which brings up the rear of the Top 10, recorded the biggest drop in the Top 10 (-11.5%), which can be explained in particular by the poor health of the Swedish economy, which entered recession in 2023 (-0.2%).
- The fierce appetite of the Lithuanian-flagged carriers
Among the three Eastern European countries present in the Top 10, Lithuania stands out for its exceptional growth of 17.3%. Clearly engaged in a conquest of market share, the country has experienced a meteoric rise, going from 15th place in Europe in 2014 to 8th in 2023. The Lithuanian fleet is now almost on a par in terms of market share with two other Eastern European states that had started their development strategy on the European market earlier: the Czech Republic and Romania. It is also gaining market share at the expense of the Western European flag states, but also those in Eastern Europe.
Romania is still doing well, despite moderate growth in 2023, the Romanian-flagged carriers have experienced strong growth over 10 years, with a market share that has increased from 2.2% to 3.5%. On the other hand, the Czech fleet recorded a virtual stagnation of its market share.
- A level of volumes that tells the story of the breakdown of the European economy
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In terms of tonnage, within the Top 5, the decline is particularly significant for German and French carriers. Italy and Poland experienced limited erosion, while the Spanish-flagged carriers are holding up particularly well, being the only State in the Top 10 to show growth in terms of tonnage transported.
2/ National road transport
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After recording a slight decrease of 0.1% in 2022, national road transport[1], which represents 61.3% of overall activity in the European Union, continued its decline. It decreased by 3.3% in 2023, to 1,138 billion tonne-kilometres. The Top 5 represents 75% of the volumes. It traditionally includes the major European economies, which have a large production and consumption market.
The results of this Top 5 reflect the clear slowdown of the European economy in 2023. The German and French flag states are particularly affected, with national traffic below the pre-pandemic level of 2019, in tonne-kilometres and tonnage.
- Germany stays largely in the lead, the country remaining Europe's largest economy despite its current difficulties. However, after already having fallen by 1.3% in 2022, domestic traffic by the German fleet declined again by 5.6% in 2023 compared to the previous year and remains well below pre-pandemic levels. In tonnage, the drop amounts to -6.7% compared to 2022 and -10.9% compared to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.
- Spain benefited from the performance of its economy, significantly higher than the European average. This allowed it to just escape a decline (0.1%), unlike its counterparts in the Top 5. Traffic expressed in tonne-km is also up 7.4% compared to 2019. In tonnage, Spanish carriers recorded an increase of 1.3% in 2023 compared to 2022 in this segment of national traffic. Spain is once again the only country in the Top 5 to show progress.
- France seems to have reached a ceiling since 5 years now, around 160 billion tonne kilometres. On the national market, the French-flagged fleet suffered a drop of 2% in 2023 compared to the previous year, and 3.2% compared to 2019. The decline in tonnes is even more pronounced, with a drop of 5.2% compared to 2022 and 5.7% compared to 2019.
- Poland, for the first time since 2018, experienced a decrease in terms of tonne-kilometres transported in 2023 (-3.7%), but also in tonnage (-1%). But if we compare to 2019, activity is up 12.9% in tonne-km and 4.5% in tonnes.
- In Italy, finally, the erosion reached -2.6% in tonne-km and -0.1% in tonnes on a year-on-year basis. But as for Spain and Poland, activity remains higher than 2019's levels (5.2% in tkm and 6.4% in tonnes).
3/ International road transport
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EU-27 international road transport[2] represented 719.1 billion tonne-kilometres in 2023, a drop of 3% compared to the previous year. The Top 5 represents 64.8% of traffic, compared to 60.7% in 2019.
- Poland dominates the international road transport market by a large margin, but recorded a decline of 0.8% in 2023 after stagnation in 2022. It is clear that the difficulties of its main partner, Germany, weighed in the balance. But we can also see the impact of the rise of the Lithuanian fleet, the number one foreign-flagged fleet on the Germany-Poland axis. For the Polish fleet, international traffic of goods loaded or unloaded in Poland decreased by 1.6% (143.3 billion tkm) and cabotage by 0.3%, while cross-trade activity[3] increased by 0.4%.
- Spain undoubtedly owes the good overall performance of its nationally-registered road carriers to the dynamism of its economy, which bolstered domestic activity. Internationally, traffic fell by 4%, which is hardly surprising given the weak growth in 2023 of Spain's two main European partners, Germany and France.
- The Lithuanian-registered fleet, on the other hand, is picking up momentum again after a dip in 2022. International traffic increased by 16.5% last year, boosted by cross-trade activity which rose by 19% to 41.2 billion tkm and cabotage activity which was up 20% to 6.8 billion tkm.
- Romania is also gaining some ground, with year-on-year growth of 1.4% in 2023. This is particularly due to the increase in international traffic of goods loaded or unloaded in Romania (2.3%). Like most European economies, the Romanian economy slowed down in 2023 but still performed above average as GDP grew by 2.1%, which benefited trade.
- The Czech flag state, finally, enters the Top 5, to the detriment of Germany. It grew by 3.3% in this segment of international transport in 2023, due to a very strong increase in cross-trade activity (up 31% to 7.3 billion tkm) and cabotage (+18% to 1.3 billion tkm). International traffic of goods loaded or unloaded in the Czech Republic, on the other hand, fell by 2.8% to 27.6 billion tkm.
The German-flagged fleet now occupies 6th place on the international market, with Spain remaining the last Western European representative in the Top 5. The German market remains the largest European "slice of pie" since, as last year, this country is at the origin of almost half of the 20 main country-to-country flows in 2023, expressed in tonnes.
Content source: Eurostat
The breakdown by route allows us to better understand the power of the Polish fleet, and generally of the fleets of Eastern European countries. In the Top 5 intra-European routes, the market share of carriers other than those of the country of origin and destination continues to grow.
The Polish fleet clearly won the match against its Western European counterparts. But it now sees the ambitions of its Eastern neighbours, particularly Lithuania, growing. This fleet does not benefit from the same geographical proximity to the European barycentre, nor can it count on a domestic market as powerful as Poland's to fuel its activity. But it could come to trouble the Polish giant on certain markets.
[1] National transport is is Road transport between two places (a place of loading and a place of unloading) located in the same country by a vehicle registered in that country
[2] International transport is Road transport between two places (a place of loading and a place of unloading) in two different countries and cabotage by road. It may involve transit through one or more additional country or countries.
[3] Cross-trade activity corresponds to international road transport between two different countries carried out by a road vehicle registered in a third country. This transport is declared by the country in which the vehicle is registered.