BAROMETER. The shipping companies are trying to stop the downward slide in container shipping freight rates but with little success, particularly on Asia-Europe routes. At the same time, preparations are under way for the recomposition of the shipping alliances.
At the end of the summer in 2023, the "Big Five" international consulting groups, whose forecasts are followed closely by the big companies as they prepare their budgets for the following year, announced that hard times were on their way for the shipping companies. Overcapacity seemed unavoidable, while, at the same time, freight rates were down and profitability under threat. At the time, worried observers saw Asia-Europe freight rates via the Suez Canal fall to below four figures per 40' container on the spot market.
These forecasts were completely overturned by the resurgence of the Middle East conflict after the events of 7 October and the consequences which followed. Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea led to the market opting for the route round the Cape of Good Hope, a change in the organisation of the market which led to an increase in freight rates and, as a result, unexpected profitability levels for the shipping companies.
Shipping companies enter turbulent times
The prevailing feeling in October 2024, however, is that the forecasts of the Big Five could now be realised a year later. The month of October will not go down in the annals, whether in terms of cargo volumes or revenues. On Asia-Europe routes, in particular, shipping companies' FAK rates were dangerously close to operating costs.
The fundamentals pointed to last year have re-emerged, perhaps with greater force than before.
- The first major factor is clearly demand. Not only has it remained generally weak, it would seem that we are also seeing changes in its structure which are benefiting other regions. It is possible that we have come to a long-term high point in terms of container volumes between Asia and Europe. This makes sense today and not only among proponents of "degrowth".
- From the capacity point of view, the route round the Cape of Good Hope has allowed additional capacity to be absorbed initially, restoring the balance between supply and demand. This argument no longer holds today, however. Even though the route round the cape has become normal, capacity is once again surplus to demand. The recomposition of the shipping alliances at the start of 2025 will stimulate competition among the shipping companies, each of them looking for top performance from the model it has adopted. MSC, the market leader, will have to fill the enormous additional capacity set to come into the market at whatever price it can get.
In the months to come, the question of whether or not it will be possible to return to the Suez Canal is creating deep concern on the market. Uncertainty about the response to this question is making it difficult for shippers and shipping companies to decide on the positions they should adopt as 2025 approaches (...)
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