BAROMETER. The shipping companies are trying to stop the downward slide in container shipping freight rates but with little success, particularly on Asia-Europe routes. At the same time, preparations are under way for the recomposition of the shipping alliances.
At the end of the summer in 2023, the "Big Five" international consulting groups, whose forecasts are followed closely by the big companies as they prepare their budgets for the following year, announced that hard times were on their way for the shipping companies. Overcapacity seemed unavoidable, while, at the same time, freight rates were down and profitability under threat. At the time, worried observers saw Asia-Europe freight rates via the Suez Canal fall to below four figures per 40' container on the spot market.
These forecasts were completely overturned by the resurgence of the Middle East conflict after the events of 7 October and the consequences which followed. Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea led to the market opting for the route round the Cape of Good Hope, a change in the organisation of the market which led to an increase in freight rates and, as a result, unexpected profitability levels for the shipping companies.
Shipping companies enter turbulent times
The prevailing feeling in October 2024, however, is that the forecasts of the Big Five could now be realised a year later. The month of...
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