European road freight transport should benefit from a continuingly dynamic economy in 2022. On the other hand, the shortage of drivers, delays in the delivery of heavy goods vehicles and inflationary trends will weigh on activity.
In 2021, transport demand followed the rebound of the economy. We have witnessed a rise in prices, linked to the increase in energy prices, as well as a deterioration in the quality of service due to a lack of capacity, more or less marked depending on the mode.
In 2022, even without a crystal ball, we can legitimately think that the marked uncertainty that has been raging for almost two years will fade. The major shippers have regained the confidence needed to boost their activity more vigorously and thus fuel transport demand. If not bright, the future seems at least more predictable, thanks to a high rate of vaccination. Over successive waves, the measures to combat the spread of the virus are no longer as coercive and therefore make it possible to maintain satisfactory economic activity, even if certain sectors are continuing to suffer. Barring an unforeseeable event at this stage, household consumption expenditure levels will therefore be maintained in 2022. We can deduce that replenishment of stocks is likely to boost road transport volumes, primarily through the acceleration of e-commerce.
At the same time, the sector will continue to suffer from the shortage of drivers, which was drastically felt in 2021. We can even envisage that this situation will further worsen, and that it will be one of the main factors to the price increase in 2022, as was diesel in 2021.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Growth of 4.3% expected in Europe
- A breeding ground for stagflation
- A concept of stagflation applicable to road transport
- Shortage of equipment
- Driver shortage
- The first effects of the Mobility Package
- Setting course for freight transport decarbonization
- The European automotive industry in crisis: towards a new era?