Global air cargo traffic grew by 5.8% year-on-year in April, following a strong month of March. But the overall forecast for the year has been revised downwards.
1/ The evolution of supply and demand
- Traffic for April 2025
According to figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), volumes in tonne-kilometres increased by 5.8% year-on-year in April, and by 2.3% month-on-month in seasonally adjusted data. According to our estimates, it amounted to approximately 23 billion tonne-kilometres. The recovery is even more noticeable on international routes, with a 6.5% year-on-year increase.
As in March, the trade war is likely to have boosted air freight activity in April 2025, due to an anticipation of orders before the introduction of additional tariffs. The sector is particularly exposed to the threat of the elimination of the de minimis rule that exempted packages worth less than $800 from tariffs upon entry into the United States. According to IATA, activity was also boosted by a classic phenomenon of restocking of fashion and consumer goods between April and June, ahead of the summer sales cycle.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
The main global traffic routes are growing year-on-year, but in varying proportions, with the strongest increases coming from the Europe/Asia (+11.3%) and Middle East/Asia (+6.7%) corridors. The Asia/United States route showed an increase of 1.9% year-on-year but a decrease of 5 percentage points compared to March. On the transatlantic route, traffic was stable month-on-month. IATA finally notes a strong rebound in volumes on the Asia-Africa route, after a half-year of sharp decline.
- Annual cumulative total to the end of April 2025
The rebound in activity in March and April allowed the air freight industry to post year-on-year traffic growth, despite a difficult start to the year. The increase in volumes remains, however, lower than that of capacity.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
- Capacity
Global air cargo capacity increased by 6.3% year-on-year in April, and by 6.9% in the international segment alone. It thus reached a record level of 52.4 billion tonne-kilometres of available supply in April 2025, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year.
Available cargo capacity in the belly hold of passenger aircraft represents 54.6% of total capacity and this increased by 6.9% year-on-year in April. Available capacity on all-cargo aircraft increased at an even faster pace, up 7.1% year-on-year. Airlines have clearly injected capacity to meet the strong demand that has arisen in anticipation of the additional tariffs. According to IATA, the increase in passenger demand expected in the summer will lead to an increase in the available capacity in the belly holds of passenger aircraft in the coming months. Access to capacity should therefore not be a concern for shippers.
2/ Price trends
Kerosene prices recorded a decline of 21.2% year-on-year and 4.1% month-on-month, the third consecutive monthly fall. This drop in fuel prices has had an impact on air freight rates, which in the Upply database include surcharges. However, erosion has remained contained. Moreover, unit revenues increased by 1.7% both year-on-year and month-on-month, according to data from IATA. This is the second consecutive month of growth, fuelled by the surge in demand.
Source: Upply Freight Index
3/ The outlook
Since the beginning of spring, the air freight sector has been operating in a favourable economic environment. In March, seasonally adjusted global manufacturing output increased by 3.2% year-on-year, following a similar increase the previous month. This dynamism contributed to the increase in air freight volumes in April, which outpaced overall trade growth.
Global manufacturing output, as measured by the PMI, maintained its upward trajectory in April, stabilising just above the growth threshold at 50.5, recording its fourth consecutive month of growth. Year-on-year, however, the PMI lost 1.7%, indicating a slowdown in production dynamics compared to April 2024. New export orders contracted more sharply, falling 2.8 index points to 47.2 compared to March 2025 and falling below the key threshold of 50. They are directly affected by changes in US trade policy.
As a result, despite the improvement seen in the spring, IATA has revised its outlook for 2025 downwards. The global air cargo industry’s turnover in 2025 is now predicted to be $142 billion, which would represent a contraction of 4.7% compared to 2024. Last December, IATA forecast revenues of $157 billion, an increase of 5.7%. Volume growth has also been drastically revised downwards, as it is expected to be limited to +0.7%, compared to a 6% increase envisaged in the previous forecasts. Unit revenue is expected to decline by 5.2%, after experiencing a decline of 3.7% in 2024. The decline was previously estimated at 0.7%.
This revision of the forecasts is based mainly on the expected impact of the decline in GDP growth, which is itself largely linked to protectionist measures which hamper trade, in particular tariffs. The sharp decline in unit revenue is also partly attributable to a drop in oil prices that was greater than initially expected. Airlines have a certain margin as freight rates remain above pre-Covid levels, but the trade war is undoubtedly a blow to the air cargo industry.
