Global air cargo traffic increased by 2.2% year-on-year in May. The effects of the trade war are now clearly being felt, particularly for traffic between Asia and North America.
1/ The evolution of supply and demand
- Traffic for May 2025
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global air cargo traffic in tonne-kilometres increased by only 2.2% year-on-year in May, a sharp slowdown from the +5.8% of the previous month. Volumes also decreased by 1% month-on-month in seasonally adjusted data. According to our estimates, it amounted to approximately 22.7 billion tonne-kilometres.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
The trends in May reflect the impact of U.S. trade policy on the global air cargo industry. The prospect of increased tariffs has caused frontloading of orders for the past few months, this is now coming to an end. In addition, the exemption from tariffs on parcels worth less than USD 800 has been removed. These shipments were mainly transported by air, and the impact is therefore significant.
Traffic to and from the United States experienced a significant decline, particularly affecting North American airlines, which recorded a decrease in cargo traffic of 5.8% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month. The Asia-North America corridor has been significantly impacted by the end of the de minimis tariff exemption which came into effect on May 2, 2025. Trade flows fell by 10.7% year-on-year on this route, representing a decrease of 12.3 percentage points compared to April 2025.
On the other hand, the Asia-Europe corridor recorded a 13.4% year-on-year (YoY) increase and a 2.3 percentage point increase compared to April, which can be explained by a redirection of flows in response to the new US tariff barriers. The Middle East/Europe and Middle East/Asia routes also recorded satisfactory results: they both gained 3.9 percentage points compared to April. The reconfiguration of global logistics routes appears to be reinforcing the region's role as a strategic hub. Intra-Asian flows remain dynamic with a growth of 9.1% year-on-year, even if a slight decline of 0.8 points is perceptible in month-on-month figures.
Finally, the Asia-Africa corridor did not build on the rebound observed in April after six months of decline. In May, it recorded a fall of 14.6% year-on-year and 6.2 percentage points month-on-month.
- Annual cumulative total to the end of May 2025
The rebound in activity in March and April remains sufficient for the air cargo industry to continue to record year-on-year traffic growth. The increase in volumes is substantially in line with that of capacity.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
- Capacity
World air cargo capacity increased by 2% year-on-year in May globally, and by 2.6% on international routes. It hit a new record, with a total of 52.6 billion tonne-kilometres offered in May 2025.
This increase is linked to the rise in available belly-hold capacity on board passenger aircraft, as airlines tend to expand their flight schedules as the summer season approaches. The cargo capacity available in the belly holds of passenger aircraft increased by 5.8% year-on-year and 5.5% month-on-month in May. Conversely, available capacity on board all-cargo aircraft decreased by 1.2% year-on-year and 3.8% month-on-month. This shows that airlines have responded to the drop in traffic, particularly on the Asia-North America corridor.
2/ Price trends
In May, kerosene prices fell by 18.8% year-on-year and 4.3% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. This fall in fuel prices, combined with the significant drop in demand on the Trans-Pacific corridor, has had an impact on freight rates. After two months of growth, due to the rush of demand before the introduction of additional tariffs, cargo yieds decreased by 2.9% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month in May.
Upply’s data shows, however, a resilience of rates on the Europe/ North American East Coast corridor, which is most probably due to the frontloading of purchases in anticipation of an eventual massive reintroduction of tariffs. Elsewhere, the decline remains limited on the Asia/Europe corridor, which continues to show dynamism in terms of volumes
Source: Upply Freight Index
3/ The outlook
The evolution of the global air cargo industry in May is a precursor to the slowdown expected in 2025. In its updated economic forecasts, published on June 3, the OECD lowered predicted global GDP growth for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points, which would now stand at +2.9%, after an increase of 3.3% in 2024. "Growth through 2025 is expected to be especially weak, with global output rising by just over 2½ per cent over the year to the fourth quarter, and by only 1.1% in the United States. Global trade growth is likely to slow substantially over the next two years, after significant front-loading ahead of expected tariff increases," the OECD said.
The signs are already visible. Global manufacturing output, as measured by the PMI, fell below the 50 mark threshold for the first time in 2025 in May, down to 49.1. This represents a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year and 2.8% compared to April 2025. As industrial production and trade in goods are closely linked, this is expected to affect air freight volumes.
The World Trade Organization is also showing some pessimism, expressed in its latest trade barometer. At the beginning of the year, global trade in goods increased sharply, importers frontloaded their purchases in anticipation of an increase in tariffs. But the forward-looking new export orders index contracted, falling below its reference value of 100 to reach 97.9, suggesting there will be a slowdown in trade growth in the coming months.
