Freight growth is tending to slow, opening up the prospect of a relatively flat peak season. The possibility of trade war escalation could give carriers greater control over market conditions, however, and maintain the upward pressure on freight rates.
1/ Supply and demand trends
- Traffic in September 2024
Global air freight traffic increased 9.4% year on year in September, making it the 14th consecutive month of growth. There was nevertheless a slowdown in the rate of growth. For the first time in 10 months, traffic grew by less than 10%. On a month-by-month basis, corrected for seasonal variations, moreover, traffic dipped by 0.4% after having slipped back 0.2% the previous month, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). According to our estimates, traffic in the month of September totalled 22.8 billion tonne-kilometres.
On international flights, growth stayed over the 10% mark, thanks, according to IATA, to increased demand in the e-commerce sector.
Growth in traffic volume mainly benefited Asia-Pacific and European carriers, which accounted respectively for 42% and 26% of the overall increase, compared to 15% for carriers in the Middle East and 11% for those in North America.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
- Traffic during the first nine months
At the end of September, demand for air freight was 12.6% up on the first nine months of 2023 and 13.5% up on international lines alone.
* CTK: cargo tonne-kilometres - Data source: IATA.
- Capacity
In September, capacity increased 6.4% year on year and 0.2% month on month, on a seasonally corrected basis. We estimate that total capacity was around 52.4 billion tonne-kilometres.
Taking account solely of international routes, the increase in capacity in September stood at 8.1%, stimulated once again by an increase in capacity available aboard passenger aircraft. This capacity rose 10.3% year on year in September, compared to a 5.4% increase in capacity on all-cargo aircraft.
Load factor stood at 45.6% in September and at 50.8% on international routes, increasing 1.3 and 1.1 points respectively year on year. During the year up to the end of September, capacity rose slightly on international routes, edging up 0.2% to 50.6%, increasing by1.7 points overall to 45.2%.
2/ Rate trends
Unit revenue, including surcharges, rose very significantly in September - by 3.6% month on month and 11.7% year on year, confirming the trend seen in the previous month. This increase was all the more remarkable for the fact that it occurred against the background of falling fuel prices. Air fuel prices fell 4.4% on average, compared to the previous month and 34.4%, compared to September 2023. "By the end of September, air cargo yields stood at 50% above 2019 levels," IATA said.
Year-on-year growth was particularly strong on Asia-Europe routes, which benefited from the double effect of strong growth in e-commerce and ongoing disruption in the Red Sea, even if this is tending to diminish.
Source: Upply Freight Index
3/ Prospects
In the weeks to come, the upward pressure on freight rates could continue , despite mixed economic indicators.
In September, the purchasing managers' index for world manufacturing output and new export orders remained under 50, at 49.4 and 47.5, which indicates they were contracting. They were down, moreover, on the preceding month. On the good news side, however, world trade in goods grew 2.8%, making September the sixth consecutive month of growth.
Against this not particularly favourable background, some operators have downgraded their forecasts for the last quarter. Kuehne + Nagel, the world's leading air forwarder, indicated when it presented its third quarter results, that it expected a more muted peak season than it had been expecting in the middle of the year. Certain tensions have indeed eased. Logistics chains have now had the time to adapt to the disruption of shipping in the Red Sea, reducing the need to send goods by air. At the same time, cargo flows to the United States were boosted by the threat of strike action by dockers at US east coast ports and in the Gulf of Mexico. This resulted in shippers seeking to some extent to have their goods delivered early for the Christmas period.
Yet, fresh uncertainties could result in another early ordering rush light in this latter part of 2024:
- The threat of a new strike in US ports
The dispute between port workers and cargo-handling companies in US east coast ports and the Gulf of Mexico only lasted for three days in October before an agreement was signed extending the master agreement which governs industrial relations between them. Negotiations on a final agreement are due to resume in November but if the two parties fail to find solutions, the strike could resume. This possibility could result in some companies looking to look to have their goods delivered early.
- The prospect of a tougher trade war
Donald Trump's election as president of the United States, which should be confirmed by Electoral College members on 17 December, opens the way to the possibility of a tougher, wider-ranging trade war, with additional customs duties on goods from China and Europe. This, too, could lead to companies ordering early. The president of the United States is generally sworn in on 20 January.
