China-EU rail freight volumes showed a negative trend in the first half of 2025, despite an increase in East-West trade.
Rail freight has not yet managed to take a structural position in trade between China and the European Union. The spikes in activity observed since 2019 on the main Eurasian corridor, known as the Middle Corridor, are primarily linked to external disruptions: in 2021 at the time of the strong post-Covid recovery and in 2024, when disruptions to maritime transport in the Red Sea pushed shippers to seek alternatives to maritime transport. As soon as the situation returned to normal, customers had a tendency to return to their previous logistics organisations.
The main findings
- In the first half of 2025, overall traffic was 138,009 TEUs, down 27% from the same period in 2024.
- Westbound rail traffic fell by 27.4% to 118,291 TEUs. In the other direction, it decreased by 24.7% to 19,718 TEUs.
- Flows remain very largely asymmetrical, with volumes from China representing 86% of the total in the first half of 2025.
- Since 2019 the average growth for the first six months of any year is limited to 2.3%, with a drop of almost 14% in the West-East direction and growth of 7.9% in the East-West direction. Since 2021, flows to the Chinese market have been experiencing continuous erosion.
Figure 1 - Data source: ERAI
Factors driving change in the first half of 2025
The asymmetrical development of flows can be partly attributed to the widening of the EU's trade deficit with China (Figure 2). China's imports from the EU decreased by 5.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while exports increased by 6.6%. The average annual change since 2019 is +4.72% for exports and -1.34% for imports.
Figure 2 - Data source: Chinese Customs
On the other hand, it is clear that rail freight has not benefited from the overall dynamics observed in exports. Shippers who had opted for rail freight as a substitute for maritime transport during the disruptions in the Red Sea in the first half of 2024 have most likely returned to maritime transport. Even though the delays are now longer due to the generalised passage of ships via the Cape of Good Hope, the transport has become smooth again, and above all, the freight rates have become very competitive again.
Figure 3 - Source : Upply Freight Index
Poland, a major gateway to Europe
In the East-West direction, the concentration of rail freight flows on the China-Poland corridor is confirmed, since it represents 93.4% of volumes, compared to 82.5% in the first half of 2024. Year-on-year, erosion remains relatively moderate compared to other routes. On the other hand, traffic has been divided by 3 between China and Germany and by 10 between China and Belgium. As for flows to Hungary, which had reached 2,570 TEUs in the first half of 2025, they have quite literally collapsed. Poland is therefore being much more spared than other routes from traffic upheavals, which makes it a structurally sound gateway to Europe.
In the West-East direction, the route linking Germany to China remained the number 1 corridor with 13,978 TEUs, or 71% of total flows in the first half of 2025. But it is down 26% year-on-year. The Poland-China route saw a drop of 16.6% to 4,886 TEUs. On these two corridors, the decline is mainly explained by a sharp drop in flows from the automotive sector.
