BAROMETER. Against all expectations, road transport prices rose again in November. They benefited from the rise in fuel prices and an increase in contract prices in France.
France continues to go through a turbulent political period. In November, the main objective of the then Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, was to fix a budget for 2025 for France, and to contain the increasing public deficit. In search of new sources of funding, the government was ready to go back on a strong marker of Emmanuel Macron's presidency, the reduction of taxes on businesses, this has greatly worried economic circles. Finally, no vote on The Finance Bill took place, because the government was the subject of a motion of no confidence on December 3, which led to the resignation of the Prime Minister.
Under these conditions, it is not surprising to see that business confidence has declined for the second month in a row. The business climate stood at 96 in November, losing 1 point as it did in October. Consequently, it is far from its long-term average level (100). This decline reflects in particular the decline in the business climate in services (-2 points, after +2 points in October), in construction (-1 point, after +0 points), in retail trade including motor trade and repair (-1 point, after -1 point) and in wholesale trade (-2 points, after +2 points in September, this indicator being bimonthly). S&P’s Composite PMI Index concerning the overall activity in France only confirms the pessimism. It fell in November to 44.8, according to the flash publication of 22 November, i.e. -3.3 points compared to October, marking a ten-month low.
Clarification on transport prices
Despite this despondent business climate, road transport prices in France picked up again in November. They gained 2.3% month-on-month, after 2 successive declines: -1.2% in October and -2.5% in September.
This price increase is good news for transport companies, as many are facing a deterioration in their profit margins. But this development remains quite surprising in a context of zero consumption growth and a surge in savings made by the French. It must therefore at this stage be considered with caution.
The variation in the price of oil, which affects freight rates with a slight delay given the operation of the pass-through mechanism, may have had an impact. Professional diesel, which has been rising steadily for the past two months, rose by 1.8% in both October and November. It is almost back to the level reached in August.
Source: Upply Freight Index – Route France
The average transport price per kilometre travelled in France is therefore on the rise again (...)
Already a subscriber?