BAROMETER. Road transport prices fell quite significantly in January. Demand for transport continues to decline across France. Carriers must protect their cash flow, which may weigh on wages and investments.
The political uncertainty that has shaken France since the dissolution of the National Assembly in June 2024 has weighed on growth. After a third consecutive quarter of growth, this time of 0.4%, mainly due to an Olympic Games effect, GDP fell by 0.1% in the fourth quarter.
This slowdown is amplified by a budgetary crisis: the public deficit has worsened to reach almost €175 billion, or almost 6 points of GDP. In 2025, efforts are expected to be made in order to put France back on a deficit reduction trajectory. The budget project drawn up by the Barnier government planned to reduce this deficit to 5 points of GDP in 2025, but the vote of no confidence of this government made these forecasts obsolete. Finally, the finance bill for 2025 of the new Bayrou government, adopted in early February, announces a deficit of 5.4 GDP points.
This projection is based on a growth forecast of +0.9% in 2025, according to the latest revision of the Finance Bill of January 2025, which corresponds to a slowdown compared to the +1.1% recorded in 2024. A figure that seems optimistic: in a report on the situation of public finances, the Court of Accounts recalls that the consensus of...
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