BAROMETER. Overall, the container shipping market kept a relatively cool head in April, thanks, notably, to China's carefully measured response to the trade war started by Donald Trump.
Main developments
- Tariff debate focuses on China-US relations
US president Donald Trump has monopolised media attention as he has blown hot and cold on international relations, without tangible results in the geopolitical sphere. From an economic point of view, however, the trade war, but more particularly the uncertainty created by his sudden changes of position, are starting to have their first effects on logistics chains. Trade between the United States and China, which are major players in the transpacific trades, was therefore seriously impeded. The truce announced from 14 May could give trade a slight boost, after a first quarter which was boosted by early ordering to beat the huge tariff increases due to be introduced by China and the United State, but much uncertainty remains. The end of the month of April was marked by a clear lull in activity for tractor operators in the American ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
As regards the US's commercial relations with the rest of the world, the additional 10% tariff has been accepted almost with relief, as attention has focused on the 90-day "pause" granted by the Trump administration prior to the possible introduction of additional "reciprocal" customs duties.
- First indications regarding the taxation of Chinese ships
In February, Donald Trump revealed that he planned to tax ships built in China or operated by Chinese companies. We now know more about this measure, which goes well beyond a simple tax on Chinese ships, since it seeks to combat "China’s unreasonable acts, policies, and practices to dominate the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors", according to the terms used by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). On 17 April, after a year of investigation which began under the Biden administration, the office unveiled the measures it proposed to take and invited concerned parties to submit their comments before 8 May 2025.
The US trade administration is proposing to introduce the following taxes on 14 October 2025 after a 180-day transitional period:
- A tax on shipping services run by Chinese operators and shipowners.
- A tax on shipping services run by other operators using ships built in China.
In both cases, the fees will be charged for each round trip or series of American port calls up to five times per year for any one ship. Originally, the measure provided for fees to be paid for each port call but protests from the industry were taken into account on this point.
The USTR also suggested imposing additional customs duties on STS cranes and other cargo-handling equipment from China, including containers and some chassis.
- Situation in the Red Sea
It is now clear that there will be no large-scale return of container shipping traffic to the Red Sea during the first half of 2025, but the situation could evolve. On 6 May, President Donald Trump announced that the United States would cease bombing the Houthis in Yemen, claiming that they had agreed to stop attacking American ships in the Red Sea. More time will be needed before operating conditions allow a large-scale return of merchant shipping to the Red Sea, but it is the first time for several months that this has started to look like a real possibility.
- DSV finalises its acquisition of DB Schenker
Geopolitical considerations are so prominent at present that we could almost forget that corporate life is continuing. On 30 April, a major international transport operation was completed, as DSV officially took over DB Schenker. This transaction has created a new number one maritime forwarding group, ahead of Kuehne+Nagel and DHL Global Forwarding.
Prices
With demand disorientated, most of the big shipping companies are looking to maintain market tension by cancelling services, even without warning (which is new), mainly in the transpacific market. Only the Gemini alliance is meeting its reliability commitments for the time being (...)
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