BAROMETER. The additional customs duties imposed by the United States has started to affect cargo volumes and freight rates.
The application of new US customs duties, along with the end of the de minimis exemption for low-value shipments, is clearly going to have a negative impact on cargo volumes for the next three months at least. This is bad news for the shipping companies and the big non-vessel-operating common carriers (NVOCCs).
Freight rates
During the summer, MSC and the big forwarders continued to cut prices, while the other shipping companies followed suit as best they could.
However, the fall in freight rates was such that the market leader finally reacted. As we indicated at the start of 2025, when we announced an up and down year for freight rates, MSC, which currently represents more than 20% of global capacity, has enough firepower to enable it to set the pace. On 1 September, it announced that it was adjusting capacity between Asia and Europe from the end of September, to take account of the slowdown expected during the Golden Week holidays. It is a good bet that its competitors will follow its example.
It will be interesting to see if the major forwarders implement these rate increases or not, given that they, too, are see their profits reduced when freight rates are low. All eyes are turned on DSV-Schenker, DHL and Kuehne + Nagel, the three heavyweights of the international forwarding market.
Transatlantic market focus
Despite pressure, notably from France, negotiations between the European Union and the United States produced an agreement on customs duties which will not fail to hurt the medecines and wine and spirits sectors: according to the document published on 21 August, products in these sectors will be subject to a 15% tariff, as provided for in the general framework agreement, and this can be expected to lead to a fall in container exports.
On the France-US market, we estimate that volumes could fall provisionally by 8-10%, while the different commercial parties involved (producers, traders, distributors and so on) come up with reciprocal profit reduction agreements as a means of absorbing the bulk of the additional cost the new duties will entail. US consumers should find themselves with a 2-5% increase on retail price tags, which is modest by comparison with what was initially threatened.
Should we, therefore, expect a collapse in transatlantic freight rates? It is not certain that this will happen (...)
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